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1、office & residential GREATER CHINA REpoRT Office & Residential Market Overview highlights Luxury residential prices in hong Kong will stay on an upward trend, with a prospective upside of 10% over the next 12 months. The Beijing residential market outlook is positive, underpinned by strong economic
2、 fundamentals and diversified purchasing sources. Grade A office vacancy rate in shanghai is expected to increase further, along with a slight decline in rentals, as new completions come on stream in 4Q 2010. In guangzhous residential market, the overall vacancy rate in 3Q 2010 was 16% and average r
3、ental was steady at RMB168 per sq m per month. High quality office property was still the main focus for investors in shenzhen, and the office sale market was active. The average price of Grade A office increased to RMB36,057 per sq m. Average office rental in chengdu increased 18.36% QoQ to RMB124.
4、13 per sq m per month in 3Q 2010. Grade A office rental in taipei is expected to increase further, with the gradual economic recovery and the rising demand for office spaces by the foreign companies. marKet indicators 市場走勢 officeresidential hong Kong 香港 BeiJing 北京 shanghai 上海 gUangZhoU 廣州 shenZhen 深
5、圳 chengdU 成都 taiPei 台北 3Q 2010 | Quarterly update 香港豪宅價格將維持上升趨勢,未來12個 月再漲10%。 良好的經濟基本面及多元化的購買力群 體,北京豪宅市場前景樂觀。 上海的辦公樓市場空置率將會持續上升, 而租金也會隨之略微下跌,在四季度達到 低估。 2010年第三季度廣州服務式公寓空置率為 16%,整體平均租金為每月每平方米人民 幣168元。 在深圳,甲級辦公樓仍是投資關注的重 點,季內成交活躍,甲級平均售價達每平 方米人民幣36,057元。 本季度成都整體辦公樓平均租金為每月每 平方米人民幣124.13元,環比第二季度上漲 18.36%。
6、 整體經濟指標仍持續升溫,需求受到外 商、金融與科技業擴大投資而逐漸回暖, 台北辨公樓租金將有機會回升。 Underpinned by the local positive demand and supply fundamentals, the Grade A office market forged ahead with a stronger-than-anticipated performance during the three-month period between June and August 2010. Companies engaged in the banking and
7、financial services sector continued to be the key market drivers thanks to the new demand attributed to a batch of private equities and hedge funds coming with floor area requirements in the order of 5,000 sq ft per company. Meanwhile, legal firms remained active in looking for office units in Centr
8、al during the period due to the hectic activity of mergers & acquisitions and initial public offerings. In the non-finance sector, a number of tenants engaged in trading and consumer products were active in securing additional space for their business needs. However, with limited stock for lease in
9、traditional business districts, tenants have been tempted to relocate to decentralised locations for cost savings and additional planning flexibility amid the consolidation of their total floor area requirements. Due to the lack of new supply and the sustained growth of occupational demand, the aver
10、age vacancy rate of the Grade A office market edged further down, from 5.0% in May to 4.2% in August 2010. The current supply squeeze is anticipated to prevail at least until the scheduled completion of 18 Kowloon East in Kowloon Bay and Kerry Centre in North point by 4Q 2010. The two projects will
11、provide a total gross floor area of more than 850,000 sq ft. Since demand continued to outstrip supply in the marketplace, the average office rental in the Grade A market increased a further 10.0% QoQ to US$73.55 per sq m per month (HK$53.30 per sq ft per month) as of August 2010. Driven by medium-s
12、ize tenants, there was positive spillover from single-owned developments to strata-titled buildings where space was available at a discount during the period. In Kowloon East, rentals continued to catch up, with a growth of 9.8% QoQ during the 3-month period ended in August 2010. Looking forward, th
13、e current market momentum is predicted to sustain in anticipation of further growth of occupational demand across the board. Although there are uncertainties on the pace of global economic growth and the possible threat of a double-dip recession, the potential rental downslide in the worst-case scen
14、ario is going to be cushioned by the lower- than-average vacancy and the limited new stock coming online. on balance, it is our prediction that office rentals will see a further growth of 20% over the next 12 months. 本地供求的基本因素良好,促使甲級辦公樓 租金升幅在2010年6月至8月的三個月期間優 於預期。銀行及金融服務業公司繼續帶動市 場向好,原因是一批私募基金及對沖基金造
15、就新需求,每家公司約需5,000平方呎樓面。 同期,因應併購及首次公開招股的活動頻 繁,許多律師行積極於中環區尋找寫字樓。 非金融業界的一些貿易及消費品公司,為滿 足業務需求而增租更大樓面。然而,由於傳 統商業區的出租辦公樓供應有限,租戶考慮 遷至二線區域,務求在整固總樓面需要時, 可節省成本及更具計劃靈活性。 因缺乏新供應及行業需求持續增長,甲級辦 公樓平均空置率進一步下降,由2010年5月 的5.0%下調至8月的4.2%。現時的供應不 足,預料會至少持續到2010年第四季當九 龍灣的18 Kowloon East 及北角的嘉里中心 落成之時。該兩個項目可供應總樓面面積逾 850,000平方
16、呎。 由於辦公樓市場求過於供的情況持續,甲級 辦公樓平均租金截至2010年8月進一步躍增 10%,按季增至每月每平方米73.55美元(每 平方呎53.30港元)。中小型租戶增加,單 一業權物業供不應求,租戶流向租金較優惠 的分層業權物業。九龍東辦公樓租金持續攀 升, 2010年5月至8月間按季增長9.8%。 展望將來,預期整體行業需求進一步增長, 帶動現市況繼續邁進。儘管全球經濟增長步 伐欠明朗及有雙底衰退的隱憂,但在最壞的 境況下,租金下滑的風險仍然輕微,原因是 空置率低於平均水平及未來的新供應有限。 整體而言,預期辦公樓租金在未來12個月進 一步上漲20%。 The potential r
17、ental downslide will be cushioned by the lower-than-average vacancy and the limited new stock. 由於空置率低於平均水平及未來的新供應 有限,租金下滑風險仍然輕微。 hong Kong - office sUPPly, taKe-UP and vacancy 香港 - 辦公樓供應、吸納及空置率 2007200820092010F 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 2011F Vacancy Rat
18、esq ft new supply (sq ft) 新供應 (平方呎) vacancy 空置率 take-up (sq ft) 吸納 (平方呎) hong Kong - office caPital valUes and rental trends 香港 - 辦公樓售價及租金走勢 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 2007200820092010F2011F RentsCapital Values capital value (hK$/sq ft) 售價 (港元/ 每平方呎) rents (hK$
19、/sq ft/month) 租金 (港元/每平方呎/每月) P. 2 | colliers international Greater CHINa report | 3Q 2010 | OFFICE | HONG KONG Notwithstanding the effective launch of new guidelines from the government to regulate sales of first-hand residential units in June 2010, as well as the governments determination to incre
20、ase residential supply, sales activity of the Hong Kong luxury residential market saw an increase in the three-month period ended August 2010. The positive market sentiment was attributed to the good response to the land auction result of the Mount Nicholson Road site on The peak. According to our r
21、esearch, the total number of luxury residential sales transactions in traditional luxury districts of The peak, Mid-levels and South Side increased by 5.3% QoQ during the three-month period ended August 2010. The new round of government measures announced in mid-August, including the ban on confirmo
22、r deals on uncompleted flats and all buyers to forfeit 10% of price if they pull out of sale, is expected to discourage short- term traders entering the property market. Meanwhile, local banks have become more conservative, tightened lending rules by carrying out a stress test on the mortgage applic
23、ants repayment ability and lowering the loan-to-value ratio from 70% to 60% for buyers of home valued at HK$12 million or above, so as to prevent excessive expansion in mortgage lending. The anticipated slowdown in residential sales volume in the short run is yet to be reflected in the market. In te
24、rms of financing, the sustained low cost of capital continued to benefit the residential market in 3Q 2010. Hong Kongs liquidity level remained sufficient at HK$148 billion at the end of August 2010. Meanwhile, the benchmark three-month HIBoR lowered from an average of 0.58% at the end of June to 0.
25、33% at the end of August 2010. The average transacted price of luxury residential properties increased further by 3.6% QoQ to US$23,999 per sq m (HK$17,391 per sq ft) as of August 2010. on the leasing front, the market picked up further in 3Q 2010 with an increasing number of transactions being reco
26、rded. occupational demand was strong. Newcomers, new hires of senior executives, from the banking and finance sectors continued to be the key groups contributing to total expatriate arrivals. Companies in the non-finance sectors remained largely cost conscious. on the supply front, landlords stood f
27、irm on their asking rentals. In general, average luxury rentals increased 4.1% QoQ to US$58.79 per sq m per month (HK$42.60 per sq ft per month) as at August 2010. Looking ahead, the new round of government measures in August to cool the local property market, coupled with tightening lending rules t
28、o prevent excessive expansion in mortgage lending will lead to a slowdown in residential sales volume in the short-term. Luxury residential prices will stay on an upward trend, with a prospective upside of 10% over the next 12 months in anticipation of the sustained negative real interest rate envir
29、onment and limited supply of luxury residential stock. Rising occupational demand and inflationary pressure will continue to drive luxury rentals upward by 15% during the same period. 政府在6月推出新指引規管一手樓宇銷售, 並且決心增加住宅供應,然而,截至2010年 8月的三個月內香港豪宅銷售活動仍有所增 加。山頂聶歌信山道地皮拍賣的成績理想, 帶動市場氣氛。根據我們的研究,傳統豪宅 區山頂、半山及南區,截至20
30、10年8月底的 三個月內,豪宅成交量按季上升5.3%。 政府於8月中宣布的新一輪措施,包括禁止一 手樓花摸貨轉讓及樓花買家取消成交會 沒收樓價訂金10%等,預期會打擊物業短炒 人士的入市意欲。本地銀行在貸款方面轉向 保守,以避免過度擴張按揭貸款。收緊貸款 的措施包括為按揭人士的還款能力進行壓力 測試、將1,200萬港元或以上的按揭貸款成數 由70%降低至60%。預料住宅交投在短期內 將放緩,但仍未反映在市場上。 在融資方面,資金成本持續低企,第三季住 宅市場繼續受惠。香港的流動資金充裕,於 2010年8月底為1,480億港元,三個月期的 香港銀行同業拆息,由2010年6月底的平均 0.58%,
31、降至8月底的0.33%。豪宅的平均成 交價按季攀升3.6%,截至2010年8月達每平 方米23,999美元(每平方呎17,391港元)。 在租務方面,2010年第三季錄得成交量上 升,反映市場進一步向好,用家需求強勁。 銀行及金融業界新聘的高級行政人員,繼續 構成新來港外國人的主要群體。但非金融業 的公司仍以節省成本為主。供應方面,業主 的租金叫價堅持。總體而言,截至2010年8 月,豪宅平均租金按季增加4.1%,達每月每 平方米58.79美元(每平方呎42.60港元)。 展望未來,政府在8月推出的新一輪冷卻本 地樓市措施,以及避免過度擴張按揭貸款的 信貸緊措施,導致住宅銷售量短期整固。然 而
32、,由於預期低息環境持續及豪宅供應有 限,豪宅價格將維持上升趨勢,於未來12個 月再漲10%。用家需求上升及通脹壓力,同 期繼續推動豪宅租金上升15%。 Luxury residential prices will stay on an upward trend in anticipation of the sustained negative real interest rate environment and limited supply. 低息環境持續及豪宅供應有限,豪宅價格 將維持上升趨勢。 hong Kong - residential sUPPly, taKe-UP and vaca
33、ncy 香港 - 豪宅供應、吸納及空置率 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2,000 2,500 1,500 1,000 500 0 3,000 2007200820092010F2011F Vacancy RateNo of units new supply (units) 新供應 (單位) vacancy 空置率 take-up (units) 吸納 (單位) hong Kong - residential caPital valUes and rental trends 香港 - 豪宅售價及租金走勢 RentsCapital Values $0 $10 $20 $30
34、 $40 $50 $60 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 $16,000 $20,000 $24,000 2007200820092010F2011F capital value (hK$/sq ft) 售價 (港元/ 每平方呎) rents (hK$/sq ft/month) 租金 (港元 /每平方呎 /每月) colliers international | P. 3 Greater CHINa report | 3Q 2010 | rEsIdENtIal | HONG KONG Echoing the market transition, many landlords
35、raised their rents and the CBD submarket retained the growth leadership. 市場情形的轉變,許多業主提高租金, CBD子市場是漲幅最大之區域。 2010年第三季度,北京甲級辦公樓市場存 量繼續增加。國貿三期竣工,為市場新增 142,000平方米辦公樓面積。 季內,北京辦公樓市場基本面保持穩健, 形成有利於業主方的市場形勢。甲級需求依 然處於高位,市場整體空置率環比下降3.02 個百分點至11.41%,同時市場淨吸納量總計 198,255平方米,環比增加53%。內資金融機 構以及來自軟件、醫藥、汽車及半導體行業 的跨國公司主導
36、租賃市場,在各子市場均有 大宗交易完成。如:甲骨文在遠洋光華國際C 座簽約近9,000平方米面積;國家開發銀行在 來福士租賃7,000平方米;福特汽車在北京銀 泰中心租賃1,500平方米。 鑒於市場情形的轉變,許多業主提高租金, 北京甲級辦公樓平均租金被推高至每月每平 方米人民幣180.23元。CBD子市場依然是漲 幅最大之區域,租金按季上升8.59%,東長 安街子市場緊隨其後,環比上漲4.56%。同 時,金融街子市場租金環比增長2.16%,至每 月每平方米人民幣228.95元,為各子市場中 最高租金值。 北京寫字樓投資市場一如前幾季活躍,錄得 兩宗整售交易成交。搜狐旗下子公司購買建 築面積為
37、56,200平方米,計劃於2012年完工 的某寫字樓物業,交易總價為1.46億美元; 一美國投資公司收購某綜合體之寫字樓部 分,該物業位於中關村子市場,於2009年下 半年竣工入市。 The total stock of Beijing Grade A office continued to expand, with China World Trade Centre phase III completed in 3Q 2010, adding 142,000 sqm of office space to the market. The office market fundamentals in
38、 Beijing remained strong, resulting in a market situation favouring landlords during the quarter. As the demand for Grade A office space remained at a high level, the overall vacancy rate slipped to 11.41% in 3Q 2010, down 3.02 percentage points QoQ, and the overall net absorption amounted to 198,25
39、5 sq m, up 53% QoQ. In this quarter, domestic financial institutions and some MNCs from software, pharmaceuticals, automobile and semiconductor industries dominated the leasing market, with many sizeable leasing transactions concluding in various submarkets. For example, oracle committed to approxim
40、ately 9,000 sq m at the Office Park Tower C, China Development Bank leased 7,000 sq m at the Raffles City and Ford took up 1,500 sq m at the Beijing Yintai Centre. Echoing the market transition, many landlords raised their rents, pushing the average rent of the Beijing Grade A office by 4.16% QoQ to
41、 RMB180.23 per sq m per month. The CBD submarket retained the growth leadership, with a QoQ increase of 8.59%, followed by the East Chang An Avenue submarket, up 4.56% QoQ. Meanwhile, the rental of Financial Street increased by 2.16% QoQ to RMB228.95 psm per month, the highest rental of all submarke
42、ts. The office investment market was as active as the previous quarters, with two en-bloc sale transactions logged. A subsidiary of SoHU acquired an office building with a GFA of 56,200 sq m, which is scheduled to be completed in 2012, at a consideration of USD 146 million. An American investment fi
43、rm purchased the office component of a complex, which was launched in 2H 2009, in the Zhongguancun submarket. BeiJing - office sUPPly, taKe-UP and vacancy 北京 - 辦公樓供應、吸納及空置率 Vacancy Ratesq m 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 300,000 600,000 900,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 2007200820092010F2011F new supply (sq m)
44、新供應 (平方米) vacancy 空置率 take-up (sq m) 吸納 (平方米) BeiJing - office caPital valUes and rental trends 北京 - 辦公樓售價及租金走勢 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 2007200820092010F2011F Rents ()Capital Values () capital value (rmB/sq m) 售價 (人民
45、幣/ 每平方米) rents (rmB/sq m/month) 租金 (人民幣/每平方米/每月) P. 4 | colliers international Greater CHINa report | 3Q 2010 | OFFICE | bEIjING The central and local governments maintained the tightening policies on the housing market in 3Q 2010, including the reiteration of housing loans suspension to third home
46、buyers and strict controls on idle lands and pre-sales management. Consequently, the overall luxury residential sales market was halted in this quarter. However, compared to the dampened investment demand in 2Q 2010, the market sentiment turned positive, with the transaction volumes of several parti
47、cular projects rebounded to some extent. There was no new completion in 3Q 2010. Some developers postponed their project launching dates to 4Q 2010 due to pricing uncertainties on the market, despite that Xanadu and Imperial Mansion (Beijing Hotel phase II) in the CBD and Jianguomen submarkets enter
48、ed the market for pre-sales in this quarter. It is worth mentioning that the sales price of Imperial Mansion reached RMB106,376 per sq m, the highest record in the Beijing residential market, according to the Beijing Real Estate Trading Management Centre. Increasing business activities during the su
49、mmer catalysed an active leasing market for Beijings luxury apartment properties. Coupled with owner-occupancy demand, the net absorption totaled 1,457 units in 3Q 2010. The submarkets of CBD, Lufthansa & Chaoyang park and Jianguomen remained the most preferred locations among tenants. The overall vacancy rate of the luxury apartment market fell to 17.79%, down 4.05 percentage points QoQ, whilst the overall average rent increased to RMB140.22 per sq m per month, up 2.47% QoQ, as at end 3Q 2010. Looking ahead, the market out
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