GUANGZHOU_R&F_PROP(2777.HK):ACCELERATING_GROWTH_WITH_HIGH_DIVIDEND_YIELD-2013-03-21.pdf
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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Buy Asia China Property Property Company Guangzhou R raising TP to HK$17.16; attractive valuations with high yield _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be
2、aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012. Price at 19
3、Mar 2013 (HKD) 11.34 Price target - 12mth (HKD) 17.16 52-week range (HKD) 15.42 - 8.64 HANG SENG INDEX 22,042 Tony Tsang Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6256 Jason Ching, CFA Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6205 Key changes Price target 16.79 to 17.16 2.2% Op prof margin(FYE) 27.5 to 26.5 -3.6% Net prof
4、it(FYE) 5,773.8 to 5,889.8 2.0% Price/price relative 4 8 12 16 3/119/113/129/12 Guangzhou R 2) core net profit of RMB5bn, up 14% YoY; 3) overall gross margin from property sales in 2012 at 42.2% stable relative to 2011 (42.5%), and high relative to most other listed developers; 4) reported net margi
5、n from property sales rose from 17.8% in 2011 to 19% in 2012 also high relative to most other listed developers; 5) overall reported net margin rose to 18.6% in 2012, from 17.7% in 2011; and 6) overall net margin rose to 17% in 2012 from 16.5% in 2011. Final DPS RMB0.5, bringing FY DPS to RMB0.6, pr
6、esenting stable dividend yield higher than most other developers. Management planned to re-accelerate growth given stronger balance sheet The management is working on increasing the rate of growth in 2013. One way to accelerate growth is to increase construction new starts, which will translate into
7、 larger GFA under development and more properties available for sale. For 2013, R 2) have total saleable resources of about RMB75bn; 3) have a contracted sales target of RMB42bn for 2013, up 23% over 2012s sales. This target is well supported by the rich planned project pipeline for 2013. Convincing
8、 valuations: 57% NAV discount, 5x 13E P/E, 6.6% 13E yield R high margins, high dividend yield, bigger rental portfolio, comfortable financial position for faster growth Higher-than-average margins R RMB42bn contracted sales target; 6msm new starts The management is working on increasing the rate of
9、growth in 2013. One way to accelerate growth is to increase construction new starts, which will translate into larger GFA under development and more properties available for sale. For 2013, R as a result, the recommendations may differ and the price targets and estimates of each may vary widely. In
10、August 2009, Deutsche Bank instituted a new policy whereby analysts may choose not to set or maintain a target price of certain issuers under coverage with a Hold rating. In particular, this will typically occur for “Hold“ rated stocks having a market cap smaller than most other companies in its sec
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