IMF- Regional Economic Outlook Report.pdf
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1、 World Economic and Financial Surveys Regional Economic Outlook Asia and Pacific Building a Sustained Recovery INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND OCT 09 2009 International Monetary Fund Cataloging-in-Publication Data Regional economic outlook : Asia and Pacific. - Washington, D.C. : International Monetary
2、Fund, 2009. p. ; cm. (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440) “Oct. 09.” “Building a sustained recovery” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-1-58906-856-8 1. Economic forecasting Asia. 2. Economic forecasting Pacific Area. 3. Asia Economic conditions, 1945- . 4. Asia Economic cond
3、itions, 1945- Statistics. 5. Pacific Area Economic conditions, 1945- . 6. Pacific Area Economic conditions, 1945- Statistics. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: World economic and financial surveys. HC412.R445 2009 Please send orders to: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services 700
4、 19th St. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A. Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publicationsimf.org Internet: www.imf.org iii Contents Definitions vi Executive Summary ix I. Asias Recovery in the Global Context 1 What Has Been Driving Asias Recovery? 4 What Lies Ahead? 22 Key Policy
5、Challenges 30 II. How Japan Recovered from Its Banking Crisis: Possible Lessons for Today 43 Japans Lost Decade: From Crisis to Recovery 44 How Does the Current Great Recession Compare with Japans Lost Decade? 49 Potential Implications for the Global Outlook and Policies 51 III. Corporate Savings an
6、d Rebalancing in Asia 55 Does Higher Corporate Saving Affect Household Behavior? 57 What Influences Corporate Savings in Asia? 64 The Policy Implications 65 Conclusion 66 Appendix 3.1. Corporate and Household Savings 66 Appendix 3.2. Regressions on the Determinants of Corporate Savings 68 References
7、 71 Boxes 1.1 How Have Low-Income Countries in Asia Fared Amid the Global Crisis? 5 1.2 Fiscal Stimulus: Assessing Effectiveness and Sustainability 12 1.3 Monetary Transmission in Asia: Is It Working? 15 1.4 Capital Inflows and Policy Responses 18 1.5 Implications of the Global Crisis for Asias Pote
8、ntial Output 25 1.6 Economic Impact of Recent Natural Disasters in Asia 29 1.7 Exit from SME Support Measures 34 1.8 Global Shifts in Demand: Making Up for Weaker Consumption in the United States 36 1.9 Macro-Stabilization in Mongolia: An Emerging Success Story 40 3.1 Corporate Savings, Household In
9、come, and Private Spending in Japan 58 3.2 Savings in China 62 REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: ASIA AND PACIFIC iv Tables 1.1 Asia: Real GDP 24 2.1 Japan: Public Funds Allocated to the Financial Sector (19992008) 48 3A.1 Private and Corporate Savings 67 3A.2 Impact of Corporate Savings on Private Savings
10、 by Region: Sensitivity to Measures of Private Savings 67 3A.3 Private Consumption and Household Property and Nonproperty Income 68 3A.4 Difference in Mean Corporate Savings, Post-2000 versus Pre-2000 68 3A.5 Corporate Savings and Corporate Governance 69 3A.6 Results from Firm-Level Regression 70 Fi
11、gures 1.1 Current Recession: Real GDP Growth 1 1.2 Assessing Global Growth Momentum 1 1.3 World Growth 2 1.4 World Trade and Asias Industrial Production 3 1.5 Selected Asia: Industrial Production and Contribution of Final External Demand to Total Value Added 3 1.6 Selected Asia: Real GDP Growth 4 1.
12、7 Asia: Growth Momentum 8 1.8 Asia: Industrial Production during 200809 9 1.9 Selected Asia: Volume of Exports during 200809 9 1.10 Asia: Value of Exports during 200809 9 1.11 Asia: Electronics and Nonelectronics Exports 10 1.12 U.S. Retail IT Inventories and Asian Electronics Exports 10 1.13 Emergi
13、ng Asia (excluding China): Direction of Exports 10 1.14 Discretionary Fiscal Measures, 2009 11 1.15 Composition of Fiscal Stimulus Measures, 2009 11 1.16 Asia: Fiscal Stimulus Implementation, 2009:H1 11 1.17 Asia Business Cycle: Nominal Policy Rates 14 1.18 Deposit Money Banks: Excess Reserves at Cr
14、isis Peak 14 1.19 Emerging Asia: Net Capital Inflows 17 1.20 Selected Asia: Portfolio Inflows and Change in Exchange Rates 17 1.21 Asia: Nominal Exchange Rate against U.S. Dollar 17 1.22 Stock Markets 19 1.23 Emerging Asia: External Bond Issuance by Sector and Rating 19 1.24 Selected Asia: TED Sprea
15、d 20 1.25 Emerging Markets: Bank Credit to Private Sector 20 1.26 Selected Asia: Bank Capital-to-Asset Ratios 20 1.27 China: Credit and Fixed-Asset Investment 21 1.28 Asia Business Cycle: Real Private Consumption Expenditure 21 1.29 Asia Business Cycle: Employment 22 1.30 Asia: Consumer Confidence a
16、nd Volume of Retail Sales 22 1.31 Japan and NIEs: Real Private Capital Formation 22 1.32 United States: Ratio of Imports to Retail SalesElectric and Electronic Products and Parts 23 CONTENTS v 1.33 Selected Asia: Manufacturing Capacity Utilization 24 1.34 Asia: Output Gaps 27 1.35 Japan, China, and
17、India: Contributions to Growth 28 1.36 Selected Asia: Contributions to Growth 28 1.37 Asia: Consumer Prices 28 1.38 Asia: Current Account Balances 30 1.39 Asia GDP Growth 30 1.40 Comparing Asia Now with Japan in the 1990s and Early 2000s 31 1.41 Property Prices 32 1.42 Fiscal Impulse in 2010 32 1.43
18、 Asia: Difference Between Broad Money Growth and Nominal GDP Growth 32 1.44 Selected Asia: Contributions of Final External Demand to Total Value Added 38 1.45 Contributions to Growth in World Imports: Consumer Goods 38 1.46 Selected Asia: Private SavingsChanges in the Share of Household and Nonhouse
19、hold Savings in GDP 38 2.1 Phases in Japans Banking Crisis 44 2.2 Japan: Industrial Production and Unemployment 45 2.3 Japan: Fiscal Stimulus and Growth 45 2.4 Japan: Policy Rate and Stock Market Index 46 2.5 Japan: Nonperforming Loans 46 2.6 Japan: Bank Capital and Lending 46 2.7 Japan: “Triple Exc
20、esses” of the Corporate Sector 47 2.8 Japan: Contributions to GDP Growth 47 2.9 Japan: Corporate Leverage and Investment 47 2.10 Japan: Public Debt 48 2.11 Bank of Japan Assets 48 2.12 Recovery Heat Maps in Japan: Three Phases of the Banking Crisis 50 2.13 Recovery Heat Maps in Advanced Economies in
21、 2009 52 2.14 Household Debt 53 2.15 Japan: Real GDP 54 3.1 Change in Savings since 2000 55 3.2 Difference in Mean Corporate Savings, Post-2000 versus Pre-2000 55 3.3 Non-Asian Emerging Markets: Savings 55 3.4 Emerging Asia (excluding China): Savings 56 3.5 Emerging Asia Corporate Savings 56 3.6 Lev
22、erage in Emerging Asia 56 3.7 Private and Corporate Savings 60 3.8 Household and Corporate Savings 60 3.9 Corporate Savings Offset by Households 61 3.10 Households: Consumption and Disposable Property Income 61 3.11 Marginal Propensities to Consume 61 3.12 Financial Reform, 2005 64 3.13 Corporate Go
23、vernance Quality, 2008 64 3.14 The Effect of Financial Liberalization on Corporate Savings 65 3.15 The Effect of Corporate Governance Reform on Corporate Savings 65 3.16 Financial Reform since the Asian Crisis 65 3.17 Measure of Investor Protection in Asia 66 vi Definitions In this Regional Economic
24、 Outlook: Asia and Pacific, the following groupings are employed: “Emerging Asia” refers to China, India, Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. “Industrial Asia” refers to Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. “Asia” refe
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