JD Power China Automotive Market.pdf
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1、Proprietary and Confidential China Stimulus: Bridge Over Troubled Water or A Postponement of the Inevitable Q1-2010 China Market Update 2009 J.D. Power and Associates, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential Automotive Market Trends: 2009 Performance 0 2 4 6
2、 8 10 12 14 16 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 PV SAARCV SAAR There might be something to the command economy idea: Simon says grow. On the other hand, a chorus of concern is singing loudly and more frequently. 11.1M 5.5M 7.2M 4.3M 2009 J.D. Power and Ass
3、ociates, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential Bridge Over Trouble or a Postponement of a Downturn -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Q1-90 Q1-92 Q1-94 Q1-96 Q1-98 Q1-00 Q1-02 Q1-04 Q1-06 Q1-08 Q1-10 Q1-12 Q1-14 Q1-16 China Global Growth YOY 10.7% Q4-2009 “History, whi
4、ch has a way of repeating itself, has taught us that speculative over expansion invariably ends in overcorrection and distress” Paul Warburg Expectations for continuation of Chinas expansion. 2009 J.D. Power and Associates, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confide
5、ntial The Global Economy is Out of Balance, and So Is Chinas 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Millions of US$ Exports and investment in infrastructure key drivers “Sooner or later, China will have to end its speci
6、al Yuan policy” Bank of China Foreign Reserves: $2.4 Trillion 2009 J.D. Power and Associates, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential Government Budget: Official Figures Tell a Benign Story -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1990 1991 1992 19
7、93 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 A look at the stimulus mechanism reveals a different plot - $1.6 billion local debt State owned banks lend to state owned enterprises with a government guarantee 2009 J.D. Power and Associates, The McGraw-Hill Companies, I
8、nc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential A Fear of Asset Bubbles and Inflation 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Shanghai A-Share Price Index Stock market up 50%, though off its peak Real estate, a ke
9、y revenue source for municipalities, is booming; wages rising again 2009 J.D. Power and Associates, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07
10、Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Merchandise Exports (NSA, Mil. US$) Source: Haver Analytics Up 46% YOY Feb Can we trust the signs of hope in export recovery. Will not drive like in the past. “China growth momentum has peaked”, Li and Fung, Outsource and Logistics Specialists 2009 J.D. Power and Associates, The
11、 McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Retail Sales (Nominal basis) CPI Growth YoY Source: Haver Analytics Retail Sales & Consumer Price Index (NSA) A transi
12、tion to a consumer economy is the recommended formula for success Progress is underway, but transition will be gradual 2009 J.D. Power and Associates, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential Stimulus Will Serve As A Bridge Policymakers command now is to slow
13、 the growth rate Reserve requirements up, dictate to slow lending Fear of non-performing loans hangs over China Property values are rising rapidly as municipalities raise funds Consumer confidence is still strong China will turn inward to develop local consumption Social ills, and social unrest rema
14、in a big issues We expect the 2009 stimulus measures will serve as a bridge, though believe the risk is to the downside. 2009 J.D. Power and Associates, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential China LV Demand Outlook up 8% in 2010 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 200620072
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