sfpe handbook of Fire Protection Engineering:Section Five:Fire Risk Analysis.pdf
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1、SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering Third Edition Editorial Staff Philip J. DiNenno, P.E. (Hughes Associates, Inc.), Editor-in-Chief Dougal Drysdale, PhD. (University of Edinburgh), Section 1 Craig L. Beyler, PhD. (Hughes Associates, Inc.), Section 2 W. Douglas Walton, P.E. (National Instit
2、ute of Standards and Technology), Section 3 Richard L. P. Custer (Arup Fire USA), Section 4 John R. Hall, Jr., PhD. (National Fire Protection Association), Section 5 John M. Watts, Jr., PhD. (The Fire Safety Institute), Section 5 National Fire Protection Association Quincy, Massachusetts Society of
3、Fire Protection Engineers Bethesda, Maryland FM.QXD 3/3/2003 4:26 PM Page iii Section Five Fire Risk Analysis 5-OPENER.QXD 11/14/2001 11:59 AM Page a Chapter 5-1Introduction to Fire Risk Analysis Introduction5-1 What Is Risk?5-1 Terminology and Concepts5-3 Methods of Fire Risk Analysis5-4 Overview o
4、f the Section5-6 Activities and Resources5-6 References Cited5-7 Additional Readings5-7 Chapter 5-2Decision Analysis Introduction5-8 Decision Classifications5-9 Multi-Objective Decisions5-13 Fire Safety Attribute Weighting5-16 Weighting Methods Used in Fire Safety Evaluation5-16 Measurement5-19 Pane
5、l of Experts5-20 Consensus5-21 References Cited5-22 Chapter 5-3Reliability Introduction5-24 Component Reliability5-24 Reliability Function5-25 Failure Rate and Hazard Rate5-26 Common Distributions and Parameter Estimation5-28 System Reliability5-31 References Cited5-39 Additional Reading5-39 Chapter
6、 5-4Uncertainty Introduction5-40 Understanding Uncertainty5-40 Identifying Uncertainties in Fire Protection Engineering5-44 Treatment of Uncertainty5-47 Techniques for the Quantitative Treatment of Uncertainty5-49 Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Fire Safety Engineering Calculations5-52 Applic
7、ation of Uncertainty to Cost-Benefit Models and Decision Analysis Models5-60 Conclusion5-63 References Cited5-63 Chapter 5-5Data for Engineering Analysis Incident Data5-67 Field Observation Data5-70 Usage and Exposure Data5-72 Laboratory Data5-75 Where Can the Data Be Obtained?5-76 References Cited5
8、-78 Chapter 5-6Measuring Fire Consequences in Economic Terms Introduction5-79 Components of Total National Fire Cost5-79 Costs and Benefits Based on Level5-83 Measurement Approaches in the Insurance Industry5-84 Monetary Equivalents for Nonmonetary Costs and Consequences5-84 Utility Theory5-87 Refer
9、ences Cited5-91 Chapter 5-7Engineering Economics Introduction5-93 Cash-Flow Concepts5-93 Interest Factors5-94 Comparison of Alternatives5-97 Benefit-Cost Analysis5-99 References Cited5-101 Additional Readings5-101 Appendix A: Symbols and Definitions of Economic Parameters5-101 Appendix B: Functional
10、 Forms of Compound Interest Factors5-102 Appendix C: Interest Tables5-103 Chapter 5-8Extreme Value Theory Introduction5-105 Extreme Order Distributions5-105 Behavior of Large Losses5-106 Average Loss5-107 Economic Value of Fire Protection Measures5-107 Factors Affecting Fire Damage5-107 Analysis of
11、Test Results5-108 Fire Severity and Fire Resistance5-109 References Cited5-110 Chapter 5-9Computer Simulation for Fire Protection Engineering Introduction5-112 Types of Models5-112 Simulation Models5-113 Applications5-116 Model Validation5-119 Sensitivity Analysis5-119 Conclusion5-120 Appendix A: Ha
12、ndling Uncertainty5-120 Appendix B: Analysis of Model Output5-122 References Cited5-123 Additional Readings5-124 Chapter 5-10Fire Risk Indexing Introduction5-125 Fire Risk Indexing5-125 Insurance Rating5-126 Dows Fire and Explosion Index5-128 Fire Safety Evaluation System5-129 Hierarchical Approach5
13、-136 Criteria for Development and Evaluation of Fire Risk Ranking5-138 Computer Models for Fire Risk Indexing5-139 References Cited5-140 Chapter 5-11Product Fire Risk Introduction5-143 Steps in a Product Fire Risk Analysis5-143 References Cited5-152 Chapter 5-12Building Fire Risk Analysis Introducti
14、on5-153 Building Fire Risk Characterization5-154 Methods for Gathering Building Fire Risk Information5-154 Building Fire Risk Analysis Approaches, Methods, and Models5-160 Risk Cost-Assessment Model5-162 Summary5-170 Section 5 Fire Risk Analysis 5-OPENER.QXD 11/14/2001 11:59 AM Page b References Cit
15、ed5-170 Additional Readings5-173 Chapter 5-13Quantitative Risk Assessment in Chemical Process Industries Introduction5-176 Step 1: Define Risk Assessment Objectives5-177 Step 2: Hazard Identification5-178 Step 3: Loss Event Scenario Development5-180 Step 4: Consequence Assessment5-182 Step 5: Probab
16、ility Assessment5-186 Step 6: Risk Presentation5-208 Step 7: Risk Reduction Analysis5-211 References Cited5-212 Additional Readings5-212 Chapter 5-14Fire Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants Introduction5-214 Nuclear Plant PRAand Fire PRA5-215 Fire PRAStructure and Methodology5-216 Fire PRA Resu
17、lts5-222 Current Activities and Future Directions5-223 Concluding Remarks5-224 Acknowledgments5-224 References Cited5-224 Additional Readings5-226 Chapter 5-15Fire Hazard Assessment for Transportation Vehicles Introduction5-227 Current Methods for Regulating Transportation Vehicle Fire Safety5-227 A
18、pplication of Fire Hazard Assessment to Transportation5-229 Selecting a Target Outcome5-229 Determining the Scenario(s) of Concern5-229 Selecting the Design Fire(s)5-229 Selecting Appropriate Methods for Prediction5-229 Performing an Evacuation Calculation5-229 Analyzing the Impact of Exposure5-230
19、Accounting for Uncertainty5-230 Alternative Uses for Fire Hazard Assessment5-230 Application of Fire Hazard Assessment to Passenger Rail5-231 Conclusions5-232 References Cited5-233 5-OPENER.QXD 11/14/2001 11:59 AM Page c 51 Introduction The chapters in this section describe concepts and methods to b
20、e used in answering the three questions: What could happen? How bad would it be? How likely is it? This chapter in particular is intended to provide an overview of fire risk analysis as a whole, indicating how the subsequent chapters fit together and how a completed fire risk analysis connects to ot
21、her evaluative and man- agement activities. The purpose of this introductory chapter is threefold: 1. Introduce some generic terminology and fundamental concepts (building on the three questions raised above) 2. Provide an overview of the other chapters in this section 3. List some broad resources f
22、or conducting fire risk analysis (FRA) What Is Risk? Risk has always been a part of human endeavor, and for much of human history, the notion that risk could be actively controlled or prevented would have been consid- ered mad or even blasphemous. Even today, when we in- creasingly expect protection
23、 against risk and use codes, regulations, insurance provisions, built-in and planned response mechanisms, and incentives, all to control or re- duce risk, very few of our risk reduction and risk man- agement actions proceed from a formal or quantitative risk analysis. This aspect, too, is changing.
24、Governments around the world are mandating risk analyses in areas of health and safety. Computations of the odds of harm are becom- ing a powerful force in decisions about activities involv- ing risk. Every decision related to fire safety is a fire risk deci- sion, whether it is treated as such or n
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