Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012.pdf
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1、Q3 2012 oil 2) Markets have been driven by geopolitical volatility in recent months (notably the Iranian premium on Brent) and, consequently, there is a lag between the amelioration of production data and how fast (and to what extent) this is being registered by the market (see BMIs Prices To Slide
2、 On Iranian Talks And Easing Fundamentals, April 25 2012). OPEC Production Iranian sanctions have dominated the OPEC supply outlook, with reports now suggesting that heavy Western sanctions are going to take a toll not just on Iranian exports with Platts reporting a 300,000b/d fall in volumes in Mar
3、ch but also on Iranian production, which could decline by 500,000b/d, as the crude produced will not be exported and storage is scarce. Platts further reported that the country may at the time of writing be storing up to 16mn barrels of unsold oil. Sanctions Begin To Bite Iranian Importers And Their
4、 Reaction To US And EU Sanctions * Total Volume of Crude Imported, Based on Period Jan - June 2011. Source: Global Trade Atlas, APEX, EIA, Reuters, Bloomberg, BMI We have already priced declining Iranian production into our forecasts. We forecast Iranian production to decline by 400,000 b/d to reach
5、 3.2mn b/d in 2012 and 3mn b/d in 2013, down from 3.6mn b/d in 2011. Given that prior to sanctions the EU imported around 600,000b/d of Iranian crude, and taking into account planned cuts in the volumes of Iranian crude imported into Asia, this is a reasonable estimation in Singapore Oil with Libyan
6、 volumes also offsetting the fall in Iranian production. High Capex Strengthens Outlook OPEC Production Growth Forecast (% chg y-o-y) e=estimate, f=forecast. Source: EIA, BMI Furthermore, we have also downwardly revised our forecasts for Iraqs oil production for 2012 (to 3.4mn b/d from 4.2mn b/d pre
7、viously) and beyond, based on the disappointing progress at major projects, delays to the establishment of new oil laws and Baghdad and Arbils bickering over payments to foreign companies. Singapore Oil which we expect to rattle markets. The UK economy is back in recession, while there is nothing to
8、 suggest an ameliorating macroeconomic outlook in the eurozone. We expect another challenging year for the OECD markets, particularly in Western Europe, and another year of slow growth. Indeed, if the eurozone debt crisis continues to worsen there is a significant downside risk to our current 0.87%
9、OECD-demand growth forecast. Very modest demand growth in North America is a small counterweight to negative European demand growth. As in recent years, it is in the non-OECD countries that we expect to see the strongest demand growth, and of these countries, China remains the most important consume
10、r market. We forecast that, in spite of a slowdown in economic expansion, oil demand will remain resilient and grow at around 4.5% (lower than our previous forecast of 5.5%, on the back of softer growth readings). While a sharp slowdown in growth would obviously pose a downside risk to this figure,
11、it is the prospect of price liberalisation that may be the most prominent downside risk to Chinese oil demand. Reports that the Chinese government is preparing to move towards a more market-based pricing system for fuels have become much more frequent, and it has become clear that the current system
12、 is unsustainable for the countrys major refiners. Our global short-term consumption outlook is in line with data put forward by the IEA, which forecasts 89.9mn b/d, compared to our 90.2mn b/d. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) downwardly revised its consumption forecasts in April 2012
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