Singapore Business Forecast Report Q3 2012.pdf
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1、Published by BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL LTD BUSINESS FORECAST REPORT Q3 2012 SINGAPORE INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECAST TO 2021 Risks Abound Despite Strong Start ISSN 1745-0691 Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. Copy Deadline: 11 May 2012 2 Business Monitor International L SINGAPORE Q3 2
2、012 SINGAPORE MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 2011e 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f Nominal GDP, US$bn 5258.5284.9298.8320.9343.9366.0389.8414.8441.7471.0502.4 Nominal GDP, SGDbn 5335.2359.0379.5397.9416.2435.6456.0477.1499.2522.8547.6 Nominal GDP, EURbn 5186.0220.9239.1256.7275
3、.2292.8311.8331.9353.4376.8401.9 GDP per capita, US$ 549,83654,20656,37060,12063,98767,55771,34575,30679,54284,15989,102 GDP per capita, EUR 535,85342,02045,09648,09651,19054,04657,07660,24563,63367,32771,281 Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y 54.92.63.63.43.33.43.43.43.43.53.5 Private consumption, % o
4、f GDP 537.638.639.540.341.242.042.843.844.745.746.7 Private final consumption, SGD real growth % y-o-y 1,54.15.36.05.55.55.55.55.65.65.85.8 Government final consumption, % of GDP 510.310.510.411.010.910.910.911.011.111.111.2 Government final consumption, SGD real growth % y-o-y 1,50.95.03.08.53.03.4
5、3.63.84.04.24.2 Fixed capital formation, % Total GDP 524.624.925.125.425.826.026.326.426.626.726.9 Fixed capital formation, SGD real growth % y-o-y 1,53.14.04.54.54.84.54.54.04.04.04.0 Population, mn 65.25.35.35.35.45.45.55.55.65.65.6 Unemployment, % of labour force, eop 2,72.22.52.52.52.52.52.52.52
6、.52.52.5 Consumer prices, % y-o-y, ave 85.24.42.01.41.31.21.21.21.21.21.2 Lending rate, %, ave 95.45.45.45.45.45.45.45.45.45.45.4 Central Bank policy rate, % eop 3,80.801.602.002.302.603.003.404.004.004.004.00 Exchange rate SGD/US$, ave 101.261.261.271.251.231.201.181.161.141.121.10 Exchange rate SG
7、D/EUR, ave 111.751.631.581.571.531.501.481.451.431.401.38 Budget balance, US$bn 124.13.83.84.04.24.95.86.67.68.69.7 Budget balance, % of GDP 121.51.31.31.21.21.41.51.61.71.81.9 Goods and services exports, US$bn 5550.1583.5620.6666.1726.3780.3835.2894.2957.61,025.91,099.3 Goods and services imports,
8、US$bn 5476.1511.4544.5583.9634.9686.1738.6795.3856.7923.0994.8 Balance of trade in goods and services, US$bn 574.172.176.182.291.394.296.698.9101.0102.9104.5 Balance of trade in goods and services, % of GDP 528.625.325.525.626.625.724.823.822.921.820.8 Current account, US$bn 557.053.756.461.068.369.
9、269.669.669.468.767.5 Current account, % of GDP 522.118.918.919.019.918.917.916.815.714.613.4 Foreign reserves ex gold, US$bn 4,13239.3256.1271.5285.0299.3314.3330.0346.5363.8382.0401.1 Import cover, months g 2 Seasonally adjusted figures used; 3 3 month SIBOR used; 4 Includes Gold. Sources: 5 Stati
10、stics Singapore/IMF/BMI; 6 World Bank/UN/BMI; 7 Ministry of Manpower/BMI; 8 Monetary Authority of Singapore/BMI; 9 IMF/BMI; 10 BMI/Monetary Authority of Singapore; 11 BMI; 12 Statistics Singapore/BMI; 13 Monetary Authority of Singapore/Statistics Singapore. 3 Business Monitor International L Content
11、s Executive Summary . 5 Core Views 5 Major Forecast Changes 5 Key Risks To Outlook 5 Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7 SWOT Analysis 7 BMI Political Risk Ratings 7 Domestic Politics.8 Generational Policy Crossroads Approaching 8 Singapores ruling Peoples Action Party (PAP) will be hard-pressed to find
12、a way to appeal to an increasingly discontented electorate while also maintaining the city-states characteristically open business environment over the coming years. With transport infrastructure coming under progressively heavier duress and a public that increasingly views slow real wage growth as
13、a result of the PAPs pro- immigration policies, Singapore is fast approaching a major policy crossroads. TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW .8 Long-Term Political Outlook 10 Political Liberalisation Likely To Be Slow Over Next Decade 10 Singapore faces very limited political risks in the near term, and we ex
14、pect the ruling Peoples Action Party to retain its monopoly on power. However, over the longer term, the city-state will come under greater pressure from its citizens to become a more vibrant democracy and foster credible opposition parties. Chapter 2: Economic Outlook . 13 SWOT Analysis .13 BMI Eco
15、nomic Risk Ratings .13 Economic Activity .14 Strong First Quarter Elicits Policy Tightening, But Headwinds Persist 14 Singapore has allayed fears of a sharp slowdown in Q112, posting above consensus 9.9% quarter-on-quarter growth on strong exports of manufactured goods. In view of the slightly bette
16、r-than-expected growth figures and stubborn inflation, the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened monetary policy by slightly raising the Singapore dollars appreciatory slope, presaging continued strength in the currency. TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY .14 Fiscal Policy .16 Taxes To Increase As Governm
17、ent Introduces More Social Spending.16 Singapores fiscal position remains one of the most sound in the world, with zero external debt and an annually balanced budget underscoring the city-states rock-solid finances. TABLE: FISCAL POLICY .17 Balance Of Payments 18 Export Resiliency In Doubt 18 Despit
18、e a decidedly weak external demand outlook, Singapore managed to post nominal y-o-y growth of 6.1% in non-oil domestic exports in Q112. Still, we caution that China, Singapores largest national export market, has yet to see the bottom of its structural economic woes, while demand from the EU will al
19、so be under pressure as the eurozone crisis continues to simmer. Even with expectations for just 1.8% real growth in exports in 2012, however, the city-states current account surplus is forecast to decline only slightly from SGD71.7bn (21.4% of GDP) in 2011 to SGD67.7bn (18.9% of GDP) in 2012. TABLE
20、: CURRENT ACCOUNT 19 Monetary Policy .20 Transportation And Housing Keeping A Floor Under Inflation In H112 20 Singapore continues to buck the regional disinflationary trend, with inflation at 5.2% y-o-y in April on buoyant accommodation and transportation prices. With a real estate correction unlik
21、ely to play out until H212, we believe that inflation will remain relatively elevated until the second half of the year, when it will begin to moderate more aggressively towards our end-year forecast of 2.5%. In lieu of the city-states stick price levels, the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightene
22、d policy slightly at its biannual meeting in April, but given the larger macroeconomic factors at play, we still see the Singapore dollar ending the year slightly weaker than its current level, at SGD1.2600/US$. 4 Business Monitor International L SINGAPORE Q3 2012 TABLE: MONETARY POLICY .20 Chapter
23、3: 10-Year Forecast 23 The Singaporean Economy To 2021 .23 Solid Growth Trajectory To 2021 23 We are fairly upbeat on Singapores longer-term growth prospects to 2020, forecasting real GDP to recover in 2011 and expand at an average of 3.3% from 2012 to 2021. Key supporting factors will be the govern
24、ments sound economic policy, a highly skilled workforce, a superior business environment and financial services industry as well as the city-states strategic location in Asia. Key constraints include the economys reliance on the external sector and Singapores ageing demographic profile. TABLE: LONG-
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