Singapore Power Report 2012.pdf
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1、 2012 power report ISSN 1754-4238 published by Business Monitor International Ltd. SINGApore INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2012 Business Monitor International
2、. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electr
3、onic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be ac
4、curate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affect
5、ing any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. SINGAPORE POWER REPORT 2012 INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2021 Par
6、t of BMIs Industry Report the share transfer was completed in December 2011. ? In March 2012, TP Utilities, a wholly-owned unit of Tuas Power, announced its plans to add 650 tonnes per hour of steam capacity to its clean coal/ biomass multi-utilities facility on Jurong Island, in a move to meet risi
7、ng energy demand from industry. ? Singapores Energy Market Authority revealed in February 2012 that work was underway on Singapores first LNG terminal, which is scheduled to begin operations in Q213. Singapore Power Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 SWOT Analysis Singapore Power
8、SWOT Strengths ? Industry deregulation and privatisation is relatively advanced in the power sector. ? Construction of Singapores first LNG terminal, which is set to begin operations in Q213, will reduce Singapores risk associated with gas supply and pricing. Weaknesses ? There are no domestic fuel
9、resources to supply power generation. ? Around 80% of Singapores electricity is generated from natural gas. Opportunities ? Expansion of gas-fired power capacity continues, with some coal-fired and renewable generation planned. ? Singapores small size makes it a good test bed for small-scale renewab
10、le energy and low carbon pilot projects, such as trials begun in the Jetty Area on Pulau Ubin in early-2012. Threats ? Increasing dependency on imported gas makes Singapore vulnerable to supply disruptions and price volatility. ? Singapore is a densely populated island with high electricity consumpt
11、ion demands and little spare land to develop new power generation plants and aspire to energy independence. Singapore Power Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 Global Industry Overview BMI View: Our integration of sector fundamentals and macroeconomic analysis has seen our core vie
12、ws for the power sector continue to play out. Having highlighted that weakened economic growth prospects will reinforce dynamics specific to the power sector, we anticipate that the divergence in the performance of power markets across regions will remain a dominant feature. Muted economic growth an
13、d austerity measures will continue to inhibit a sustained recovery in power demand in developed markets and in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where growing risk aversion will also favour divestment over capital expenditure (capex). Conversely, the energy infrastructure segment will fare better in
14、 developing markets, where significant increases in power generation capacity are necessary in order to support economic growth and curb discontent. Downside Risks Materialising BMI Power Universe Total Electricity Consumption, Growth (% Y-O-Y) By Region e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: EIA/Wor
15、ld Bank/National Statistical Agencies/BMI Calculations. Our views on the renewables and nuclear segments remain the same as in previous quarters. We maintain that renewable projects will be increasingly exposed to competing forces, with overcapacity concerns, austerity measures and a poor macroecono
16、mic environment likely to weigh on the share prices of wind and solar manufacturers and developers. Consequently, further consolidation in the sector is expected in 2012, through mergers however, the region will maintain its status a global outperformer in the power sector. Our medium- to long-term
17、outlook for Asia is positive, with increasing demand, coupled with largely inadequate electrification rates and installed capacity levels, making the power sector a priority for most governments. Most notably, vast growth potential in the power segment and improved access to financing in the overall
18、 infrastructure sector should help maintain investor interest in the regions power markets. Indeed, with economic activity showing signs of softening across Asia, monetary policies are being loosened, creating a more positive credit climate. Short-term Downside Risks To Materialise, But Long-Term Ou
19、tlook Still Positive We note that global- and country-specific economic headwinds present risks to our short-term outlook, especially in countries where power consumption is largely related to export-oriented manufacturing activities. From this perspective, and factoring in the views of BMIs country
20、 risk analysts, we therefore anticipate that power consumption in Australia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea will take a hit. Most notably, the Chinese power sector will also see a contraction in its consumption and generation growth rates, in line with BMIs view that the country will e
21、xperience a hard landing. This is a view corroborated by the official data for Chinas real estate sector, which confirms that a structural decline in house prices is now well under way. 2012 Slow Down But Positive In Medium Term Total Net Consumption, Growth % y-o-y e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Sour
22、ces: EIA/National Statistical Agencies/BMI. Singapore Power Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 15 Nonetheless, we believe that long-term dynamics will continue to prompt regional governments to refurbish and expand their electricity generating capacity, with various major projects p
23、roposed or already under way. Although weakening economic activity is expected to shrink the power consumption growth rate in 2012, BMIs power forecasts have long showed that power consumption in Asia will see a sharp expansion over our 10-year forecast period. China and, to a lesser extent, India w
24、ill remain in a league of their own in absolute terms, but we anticipate that electricity generation and consumption in power- hungry Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia will lead to these countries having the highest average year-on- year (y-o-y) growth rates in the region between 2011 and 2021. Conver
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