The Future of Clean Thermal Technologies.pdf
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1、E N E R G Y The Future of Clean Thermal Technologies Technology developments, key costs and the future outlook By Paul Breeze ii Paul Breeze Dr Paul Breeze has specialized in the electricity sector for the past 25 years. He is contributing editor for the monthly international magazine for the power
2、industry, Modern Power Systems, and as freelance writer he has contributed to The Financial Times, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, The Observer and The Economist. In addition to the power sector, Paul Breezes interests include science and the computer industry. Copyright 2009 Business Insights Lt
3、d This Management Report is published by Business Insights Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduction or redistribution of this Management Report in any form for any purpose is expressly prohibited without the prior consent of Business Insights Ltd. The views expressed in this Management Report are thos
4、e of the publisher, not of Business Insights. Business Insights Ltd accepts no liability for the accuracy or completeness of the information, advice or comment contained in this Management Report nor for any actions taken in reliance thereon. While information, advice or comment is believed to be co
5、rrect at the time of publication, no responsibility can be accepted by Business Insights Ltd for its completeness or accuracy iii Table of Contents The Future of Clean Thermal Technologies Executive summary 10 Introduction 10 Conventional coal-burning technologies 10 Advanced and zero-emission coal
6、burning technologies 11 Gas burning power generation technologies 11 Carbon sequestration 12 Environmental and legislative issues 12 The economics of clean thermal technologies 13 The future of clean thermal technologies 13 Chapter 1 Introduction 16 Summary 16 The power sector and global warming 18
7、The report 20 Chapter 2 Conventional coal burning technologies 22 Introduction 22 Coal-fired power generation 24 Pulverized coal power plants 25 Fluidized bed power plants 28 Emission control 29 Dust and particulate material 29 Sulfur dioxide 30 Mercury 32 Nitrogen oxides 33 CO2 34 Emission limits 3
8、5 iv Chapter 3 Advanced and zero emission coal burning technologies 38 Introduction 38 Pre-combustion capture 39 Integrated gasification combined cycle 40 Oxyfuel combustion 41 Retrofitting and capture ready plants 42 Effects of carbon capture on plant performance 44 Chapter 4 Gas burning power gene
9、ration technologies 48 Introduction 48 Generating power from natural gas 50 Gas-fired boilers 51 Gas reciprocating engines 52 Gas turbines 53 Combined cycle power plants 55 Advanced gas turbine cycles 56 Micro turbines 57 Fuel cells 57 Gas turbine emission control 59 Carbon monoxide 60 Unburned hydr
10、ocarbons 60 Particulate material 61 Sulfur dioxide and sulfur trioxide 61 Nitrogen oxides 61 Carbon capture 62 Chapter 5 Carbon sequestration 66 Introduction 66 The size of the problem 67 CO2 transportation 68 Carbon sequestration 70 Geological sequestration 71 Ocean sequestration 74 Risks 75 Monito
11、ring and legislative issues 76 v Chapter 6 Environmental and legislative issues 78 Introduction 78 Emissions and emission limits 78 Carbon emissions 84 Cap-and-trade systems 85 Monitoring 86 Legislative issues associated with carbon sequestration 87 Chapter 7 Future outlook 90 Introduction 90 Capita
12、l costs of thermal power plants 91 The levelized cost of electricity 98 The cost of carbon 105 Chapter 8 The prospects for clean thermal technologies 108 Introduction 108 The growth in fossil fuel for power generation 109 The competitiveness of thermal power generation 116 Market opportunities 121 I
13、ndex 125 vi List of Figures Figure 1.1: CO2 emissions by sector (GtCO2/y), 2005 and 2030 17 Figure 2.2: Coal-fired power generation in the OECD and non-OECD (PWh), 2006-2030 23 Figure 3.3: Efficiency of coal-fired plants with carbon capture (%) 45 Figure 4.4: Global power generation base on natural
14、gas (PWh), 2006-2030 49 Figure 4.5: Gas-fired power plant efficiencies (%) 54 Figure 4.6: Typical gas turbine pollutant emissions (ppmV) 60 Figure 5.7: National power plant CO2 intensity (kgCO2/MWh) 67 Figure 5.8: Cost of transportation of CO2 by pipeline and sea ($/tCO2) 70 Figure 5.9: Potential gl
15、obal underground storage capacities (Gt CO2) 73 Figure 6.10: World Bank guidelines for emissions from power plants 80 Figure 6.11: Acid gas emissions in the CAIR region of the US (million tonnes), 1990-2030 82 Figure 7.12: Installed cost of thermal power generating capacity in the US (2007 $/kW) 92
16、Figure 7.13: Lazard capital cost comparison for thermal power generating capacity ($/kW) 94 Figure 7.14: Capital cost of adding flue gas cleanup to US coal-fired power plants ($/kW) 96 Figure 7.15: The predicted cost of a carbon capture and storage demonstration project in China (m) 97 Figure 7.16:
17、Levelized cost of electricity for new capacity entering service in the US in 2016 ($/MWh) 99 Figure 7.17: Levelized cost in Nominal 2009$ of electricity from thermal power plants in California entering service in 2009 ($/MWh) 102 Figure 7.18: Levelized cost in Nominal 2018$ of electricity from therm
18、al power plants in California entering service in 2018 ($/MWh) 103 Figure 7.19: Levelized cost of electricity from coal-fired power plants in the UK (/MWh) 104 Figure 8.20: Proportion of global electricity generated by thermal power plants (%), 2006-2030 110 Figure 8.21: Global power generation base
19、d on coal and natural gas (PWh), 2006-2030 111 Figure 8.22: Global coal-fired generating capacity (GW), 2006-2030 113 Figure 8.23: Global natural gas-fired generating capacity (GW), 2006-2030 114 Figure 8.24: Global power generation growth to 2030 under the IEAs 450 scenario (GW) 116 Figure 8.25: Le
20、velized cost comparison between thermal, nuclear and alternative technologies entering service in 2016 ($/MWh) 118 Figure 8.26: Levelized cost comparison for generating capacity in California ($/MWh) 120 Figure 8.27: Key thermal power plant and emission control market drivers and resistors 122 vii L
21、ist of Tables Table 1.1: CO2 emissions by sector (GtCO2/y), 2005 and 2030 16 Table 2.2: Coal-fired power generation in the OECD and non-OECD (PWh), 2006-2030 23 Table 2.3: Typical pulverized coal fired power plant operating conditions and efficiency 26 Table 2.4: Comparison of wet and dry FGD 31 Tab
22、le 3.5: Efficiency of coal-fired plants with carbon capture (%) 44 Table 4.6: Global power generation base on natural gas (PWh), 2006-2030 49 Table 4.7: Gas-fired power plant efficiencies (%) 53 Table 4.8: Typical gas turbine pollutant emissions (ppmV) 59 Table 5.9: National power plant CO2 emission
23、s from ten largest emitters 67 Table 5.10: Cost of transportation of CO2 by pipeline and sea ($/tCO2) 69 Table 5.11: Potential global underground storage capacities (Gt CO2) 73 Table 6.12: Typical daily production from a 500MW coal-fired power plant 79 Table 6.13: Acid gas emissions in the CAIR regi
24、on of the US (million tonnes), 1990-2030 81 Table 6.14: EU guidelines for power plant emissions 83 Table 7.15: Installed cost of thermal power generating capacity in the US (2007 $/kW) 91 Table 7.16: Lazard capital cost comparison for thermal power generating capacity ($/kW) 93 Table 7.17: Capital c
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