UTILITY_ALTERNATIVE_ENERGY:UPDATE_ON_SHANGHAI_ELECTRIC_CHSTE_BJE_CHINA_GAS_AND_HARBIN_ELECTRIC-2013-04-02.pdf
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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia China Utilities Periodical Utility/Alternative Energy Date 2 April 2013 Update on Shanghai Electric, CHSTE, BJE, China Gas and Harbin Electric _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.
2、Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P)
3、 072/04/2012. Michael Tong, CFA Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6167 Eric Cheng, CFA Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6202 eric- Kai-Ting Wong, CFA Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6235 kai- Companies Featured Beijing Enterprises (0392.HK),HKD59.80 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 19.7523.2818.72 EV/EBITDA (x) 1
4、0.616.514.1 Price/book (x) 1.41.71.6 China Resources Power (0836.HK),HKD23.25 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 18.3615.2511.17 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.79.47.2 Price/book (x) 1.31.91.6 Longyuan Power (0916.HK),HKD7.04 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 16.516.614.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.910.19.2 Price/book (x) 1.51.31.3
5、Dongfang Electric (1072.HK),HKD12.86 Hold 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 14.88.87.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.02.61.5 Price/book (x) 2.81.31.1 Huaneng Power Intl (0902.HK),HKD8.28 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 39.5916.598.91 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.78.36.6 Price/book (x) 0.91.71.5 BEWG (0371.HK),HKD2.31 Buy 2011A 2012E 20
6、13E P/E (x) 24.7920.6213.67 EV/EBITDA (x) 20.918.512.3 Price/book (x) 1.81.91.6 Datang Renewable (1798.HK),HKD1.46 Hold 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 12.7443.0815.26 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.210.89.6 Price/book (x) 0.90.90.9 FY12 analyst management briefing calendar for utilities/renewable energy (venue details
7、 inside) FY12 analyst management briefing calendar for utilities/renewable energy (venue details inside) April 2: Dongfang Electric, Huadian Power, Harbin Electric, CHSTE, Shanghai Electric, China Machinery Recently published reports Recently published reports Shanghai Electric Alert - Unexpected 4Q
8、12 loss Shanghais 2012 earnings declined 15% yoy to Rmb2.715bn, 15% below our estimate, which is mainly due to significant loss incurred by its Heavy Machinery unit in 4Q. On PRC GAAP, the company turned to a loss of Rmb240m in 4Q, from a net profit of Rmb1.0bn in 3Q. The company declared a cash div
9、idend of RMB0.064/sh, implying 30% payout. Nevertheless, after a disappointing 2012, we do not expect a major upturn for either new orders or delivery in 2013-14. Maintain Hold. China High Speed Trans Alert - Results seen as non-event; turnaround intact but watch for refinancing Reported earnings de
10、clined by 67% yoy to Rmb138m, which is below our estimate of Rmb161m due to less wind gearbox delivered in 2H12 (3.0GW vs. 4.0GW assumed), which indicates a hoh decline from 3.7GW in 1H12. However, we think this is largely a non-event as the disappointing FY12 should be well known after profit warni
11、ng issued while our Buy rating hinges on recovery from FY13 beyond. As we argued earlier, we view 2013 as the turning point for wind equipment industry for improvement market demand as well as cashflow from reduced curtailment and acceleration of tariff settlement based on expected supporting polici
12、es. Beijing Enterprises - Growth outlook remains intact; Buy Beijing Enterprises (BJE) reported 18% yoy earnings growth for 2012 (8% yoy ex. one-offs). Coal-to-gas replacement demand in Beijing should continue to be the key volume growth driver, and we expect gas consumption and pipeline utilization
13、 to further ramp up in 2013 and beyond. Despite the recent share price run, we believe the stock remains attractive relative to its peers, as we see a highly visible growth profile, improving asset returns in coming years, and no reliance on connection fees; Buy. Company/sector news Company/sector n
14、ews Harbin Electric wins 2x300MW thermal equipment order Three coal-to-gas projects receive preliminary approval from the NDRC China Gas faces operating concession competition in Liaoning province Order focus: GTAT wins follow-on polysilicon technology and equipment deal Coal inventory in the four B
15、ohai-rim ports declines to 18.8m tons; raw coal price is down Rmb5/t wow SINOSICO reaches poly production capacity of 10,000MT p.a. Solar modules with prices lower than Rmb4.2/w could win the solar plant bid Japan cuts solar PV feed-in tariff by 10% starting in April 2 April 2013 Utilities Utility/A
16、lternative Energy Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong FY12 analyst management briefing calendar and venue details CHSTE: 10:00am April 2, Salon 5, Level 3, JW Marriott Hotel, Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Central, Hong Kong Dongfang Electric: 10:30am April 2, Harcourt Room, Conrad Hotel, Pacific Place
17、88 Queensway, Hong Kong Huadian Power: 11:00am April 2, Salon 123, Level 3, JW Marriott Hotel Hong Kong, Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong Harbin Electric: 4:15pm April 2, Atrium Room, Level 39, Island Shangri-La Hotel, Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong China Machinery Engineering Corporat
18、ion (CMEC): 4:15pm April 2, Harcourt Room, Lower Level, Conrad Hong Kong, Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong Suntien Green: 9:30am April 8, Tianshan raw coal price is down Rmb5/t wow () According to the latest data, as of 31 March 2013, the coal inventory in the four Bohai- rim ports decreased b
19、y 5.2% wow (or 1m tons) to 18.8m tons. In detail, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port, Guotou Caofeidian Port and Jingtang Port decreased by 8.9% wow, 4.3% wow and 3.7% wow to 7.4m tons, 4.9m tons and 2.9m tons, respectively, while that at Tianjin Port saw a slight increase to 3.6m tons. As of 31 Mar
20、ch 2013, the raw coal price at Jingtang Port closed at Rmb670/t, down Rmb5/t wow. Solar modules with prices lower than Rmb4.2/w could win the solar plant bid (Solarbe) Based on experts analysis of investment return on domestic solar plants, only solar PV systems with prices lower than Rmb4.2/w are l
21、ikely to win the bid. However, currently only top-tier module manufacturers can control production costs under Rmb4/w. According to this analysis, most low-tier players without a cost edge would be unlikely to survive. Japan cuts solar PV feed-in tariff by 10% starting in April (NE21) The Japanese g
22、overnment recently approved a proposal to cut the feed-in tariff (FiT) for solar PV installation by 10%. The FiT rate has been reduced from the previous JPY42/kWh to JPY37.8/kWh effective 1 April 2013. 2 April 2013 Utilities Utility/Alternative Energy Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Recently publi
23、shed reports Shanghai Electric Alert - Unexpected 4Q12 loss Ticker: 2727.HK, Closing Price: 3.02 HKD, Target Price: 3.80 HKD, Recommendation: Hold Results below expectation on heavy loss of heavy machinery unit in 4Q12 Shanghais 2012 earnings declined 15% yoy to Rmb2.715bn, 15% below our estimate, w
24、hich is mainly due to significant loss incurred by its Heavy Machinery unit in 4Q. On PRC GAAP, the company turned to a loss of Rmb240m in 4Q, from a net profit of Rmb1.0bn in 3Q. The company declared a cash dividend of RMB0.064/sh, implying 30% payout. Nevertheless, after a disappointing 2012, we d
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