powertestconference.ppt
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1、The Wind Industry: Past, Present, Future Randall Swisher Power Test Conference February 15, 2010,The Past: A Brief History of the Wind Industry,Growing a New Industry,A complex mix of technology, policy and business/economics must all work together,In the Beginning: A Vision,The context: 1973 was th
2、e first Arab oil embargo “It would not be foolish at all to state that this country could be totally energized by solar energy and other renewable processes by the year 2000.” - William Heronemus, 1973, before a U.S. Senate subcommittee Heronemus founded the UMass alternative energy engineering prog
3、ram, was a pioneer of the wind farm concept and offshore wind power His vision: 300,000 wind turbines on the Great Plains providing 10-15% of the nations electricity,In the Beginning: A Vision,Late 70s Policy Provided a Foundation,Federal Wind R&D Program Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 19
4、78 (PURPA) Requires utilities to buy electricity from renewable and cogeneration facilities Energy Tax Act of 1978 Creates 15% Energy Investment Tax Credit (EITC) Added to existing 10% ITC Limited Partnership Structure - Wind Farms California policy Tax incentives Strong regulatory support Standard
5、offer contracts,In the 1980s, the U.S. led the World in Wind Technology,The first successful windfarms were established in 1981 in California Many U.S. turbine manufacturers were established in the early 80s By 1989, the U.S. was home to 85% of the worlds installed wind capacity almost all in Califo
6、rnia and a leading manufacturer: US Windpower (founded in 1976),But Turning Vision to Reality was Tough,Harnessing the wind was tougher than it looks First California Wind Farms 1981 Poor performance - very low capacity factors But provided a successful laboratory some turbines worked, some didnt Bu
7、ilding strong companies was a challenge Engineering Business acumen Access to capital Knowledge of the utility industry,We Turned our Backs on the Opportunity,The DOE Wind R&D budget was cut 90% through the 1980s The wind investment tax credit was abruptly ended in 1986 Most U.S. turbine manufacture
8、rs went out of business In 1989, the domestic wind market was lifeless . . . And seven years later US Windpower was bankrupt,Europe Took the Lead in the 1990s,Strong market incentives in Denmark, Germany and Spain led to a thriving turbine manufacturing industry Germany was the largest single market
9、 until 2008 This European leadership made possible winds current competitiveness,Today, the Global Industry has Three Key Markets,Europe 76,000 MW (end of 2009) Most manufacturers based in Europe North America 38,500 MW The U.S. is now the largest single market, and all major global companies want t
10、o participate Asia 39,000 MW Chinese market growing most quickly, and establishing a strong manufacturing base,The U.S. Wind Industry in 2010,U.S. is World Leader in Wind Power,With over 35,OOO MW, the U.S. is now the #1 wind energy producer in the world,2009 Highlights,9,922 MW were installed in 20
11、09, bringing the total to 35,159 MW. Growth in 2009 (annual to cumulative): 39% 5-year Compounded Growth: 39% The U.S. wind energy industry shattered all installation records thanks to the Recovery Act.,U.S. Wind Industry: 2009,Wind MW Installed,Total Installation in 4Q 2009: 4,041 MW Total Installa
12、tion in 2009: 9,922 MW,Total U.S. Installation through 4Q 2009: 35,159 MW,Source: American Wind Energy Association,Top Ten States in 2009,Source: American Wind Energy Association,State by State Installations (MW),Source: American Wind Energy Association,Market Players: Turbine Manufacturers,Turbines
13、 Installed in 2009: Acciona WP Clipper DeWind Fuhrlander Gamesa GE Energy Mitsubishi Nordex REpower Siemens Suzlon Vestas,Manufacturers Share of Installed Capacity,Share of 2008,2008 Installations by WTG Mfgr,U.S. Wind Manufacturing,Source: AWEA, updated through 4Q 2009,300,000 MW of Proposed Wind i
14、n Interconnection Queues,Wind Power in Queues (MW),Iowa 14,569,Minnesota 20,011,New Mexico 14,136,North Dakota 11,493,Penn. 3,391,South Dakota 30,112,Oklahoma 14,677,Illinois 16,284,Ohio 3,683,Kansas 13,191,Wisconsin 908,Michigan 2,518,WV 1,045,New York 8,000,VT 155,Total 311,155 MW,MA 492,Montana 2
15、327,NJ 1416,Under 1000 MW 1,000 MW-8,000 MW Over 8,000 MW,Missouri 2,050,Indiana 8,426,Maine 1,398,NH 396,RI 347,DE 450,MD 810,VA 820,Arkansas 210,Texas 63,504,Arizona 7,268,California 18,629,Colorado 16,602,Idaho 446,Nebraska 3,726,Nevada 3,913,Oregon 9,361,Utah 1,052,Washington 5,831,Wyoming 7,870
16、,Note: AWEA does not make industry forecasts or endorse any external forecasts,Other Analysts Projected Wind Growth Nationwide,Winds Long-term Potential,20% Wind Energy by 2030,U.S. Department of Energy: “The U.S. possesses sufficient and affordable wind resources to obtain at least 20% of its elect
17、ricity from wind by the year 2030.” www.20percentwind.org,The 20% Technical Report,Explores one scenario for reaching 20% wind energy by 2030 and contrasts it to a scenario in which no new U.S. wind power capacity is installed Not a prediction - an analysis based on one scenario Is the work of more
18、than 100 individuals involved from 2006 - 2008 (government, industry, utilities, NGOs) NREL analytical foundation/their model Black & Veatch input assumptions/market data on cost AEP independent transmission conceptual design,The 20% Wind Energy Scenario,U.S. electricity consumption grows 39% from 2
19、005 to 2030 to 5.8 billion MWh (Source: EIA) 20% wind electricity requires about 300 GW (300,000 MW) of wind generation No technology breakthroughs required: 20% wind can be achieved with existing wind technology Technology will continue to improve: Productivity of wind turbines increases about 15%
20、by 2030 This is an extremely conservative assumption,20% Wind Energy by 2030,Installed Capacity at year end 2009 is greater than 35 GW; 3 years ahead of schedule,305 GW,20% Wind: Electricity Sector Costs,Both scenarios cost over $2 trillion in new investment in net present value terms by 2030 Increm
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