CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY - Metal …:中国金属硅市场每月-金属… .pdf
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1、CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013No.6Published by SMMhttp:/ 10 Pages Contact us Hotline: +86-21-5155-0306 Mail: Fax: +86-21-5155-0345 Address: 23rd Floor, No. 2000 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai, 200063, China Table of Contentsnts Market Focus P1 Operating Rate P2 Domestic Market .P3
2、 Export Market P4 Price Forecast P6 Downstream Market P6 Aluminum AlloyP6 Silicon Metal Powder P6 Organic Silicon P7 Polysilicon .P7 Trichlorosilane P8 Related News P9 Economic News P9 Metals News P9 Operating Rate SMM survey shows that the average operating rate at Chinas silicon metal producers in
3、 December was 27.96%, with an increasing number of producers halting production, leaving signifi cant decline in silicon metal output. SMM survey covered 150 silicon metal producers with the capacity totaling 3.24 million mt/yr, representing over 81% of national total capacity. Chinas silicon metal
4、output was around 75,600 mt in December, including 39,000 mt of metallurgical-grade silicon metal and 36,400 mt of chemical-grade silicon metal. Highlights Market Focus: China Silicon Metal Provisional Tariff Cancelled 2013 Operating Rates: Operating Rates at China Silicon Metal Producers in Decembe
5、r Aluminum Alloy: Prices Lack upward Momentum amid Weak Demand Silicon Metal Powder: Higher Production Costs Drive Silicon Powder Prices up Organic Silicon: Sluggish Demand Further Weighs down Trichlorosilane Prices Polysilicon: Supportive Policy Limitedly Boost Polysilicon Sector Trichlorosilane: P
6、roduction Cost Hike Squeezes Profi t Margin at DMC Producers 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20112012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: SMM Operating Rate at China Silicon Metal Producer 2011- 2012 1CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information Jan. 2008,
7、10% provisional tariff for silicon metal imposed; Dec. 2008, 10% provisional tariff for silicon metal hiked to 15%; Jan. 2009, 15% provisional tariff for silicon metal retained; Jan. 2010, 15% provisional tariff for silicon metal retained; Jan. 2011, 15% provisional tariff for silicon metal retained
8、; Jan. 2012, 15% provisional tariff for silicon metal retained; Jan. 2013, 15% provisional tariff for silicon metal cancelled. 2CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20112012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
9、Nov Dec Figure 1: Operating Rate at China Silicon Metal Producer 2011-2012 Source: SMM Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Unit: 10,000 Mt Figure 2: China Silicon Metal Monthly Output 2012 Source: SMM Operating Rate Survey of Operating Rates at China Silicon Metal Produce
10、rs in December SMM survey shows that the average operating rate at Chinas silicon metal producers in December was 27.96%, with an increasing number of producers halting production, leaving signifi cant decline in silicon metal output. In south China, silicon metal output in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guiz
11、hou dropped. In north China, represented by Xinjiang, the massive snowfalls pushed up cost on transportation, but production was little affected, so silicon metal output in this region remained flat at Novembers level. The cancellation of export tariff on silicon metal reported December 17 strengthe
12、ned bullish mood in the market and undermined producers selling interest. Thus, silicon metal prices were driven up. Besides, electricity prices in Yunnans Baoshan and Dehong were raised on December 28, along with the termination of power supply by small hydropower stations. As such, most producers
13、opted to halt production. SMM survey covered 150 silicon metal producers with the capacity totaling 3.24 million mt/yr, representing over 81% of national total capacity. Chinas silicon metal output was around 75,600 mt in December, including 39,000 mt of metallurgical-grade silicon metal and 36,400
14、mt of chemical-grade silicon metal. 3CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 5000 0 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 72% Operating Rate Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul A
15、ug Sep Oct Operating Rate Unit: MtUnit: Mt Monthly OutputMonthly Output 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 8000 16000 24000 32000 Figure 4: December Operating Rate at Sichuan Silicon Metal Producer Source: SMM Figure 3: December Operating Rate at Yunnan Silicon Metal Producer Source: SMM Operating Rate Jan Fe
16、b Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Operating Rate Unit: MtUnit: Mt Monthly OutputMonthly Output 0 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Figure 6: December Operating Rate at Xinjiang Sil
17、icon Metal Producer Source: SMM Figure 5: December Operating Rate at Fujian Silicon Metal Producer Source: SMM Domestic Market Silicon Metal Prices Up amid Bullish Outlook Since the elimination of export tariff on silicon metal lifted overseas market and may help drive up domestic demand, most silic
18、on metal producers held a bullish attitude towards market outlook, with low-grade silicon metal prices rising sharply. In contrast, downstream Table 4: Operating Rate at China Silicon Metal Producer in Dec. 2012 Capacity Scale (Unit: 10,000 Mt/yr) Number of Surveyed Company December Output (Unit: 10
19、,000 Mt) 2012 Capacity (Unit: 10,000 Mt) December Operating Rate X4213.36142.1228.37% 4X1703.63142.1830.67% X1580.5740.1616.88% Total1507.56324.4627.96% Source: SMM Note: “X” refers to company capacity scale As described in the table, larger producers of fi nancial strength and risk tolerance manage
20、d to maintain their operating rates at around 30%, while the rates for smaller producers slipped below 20%. Only a few silicon metal producers were still in operation in south China at the beginning of the new year, and most downstream buyers have no plan to replenish stocks given the adequate inven
21、tories. Thus, SMM expects operating rates at silicon metal producer to drop further in January. 4CHINA SILICON METAL MARKET MONTHLY Jan. 09, 2013 Copy Right SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Table 6: Comparison of Average Monthly Price of China Chemical-Grade Silicon Metal in Dec. 2012 Specifi
22、cation2011 Dec.2012 Nov.2012 Dec.YoYMoM #42114226.0912011.3612116.67-17.41%0.87% #41114280.4312061.3612178.57-17.26%0.96% Source: SMM Note: the above prices are RMB-denominated prices of chemical-grade silicon metal shipped from factories to major ports in China, such as Huangpu port in Eastern Chin
23、a and Dalian and Tianjin ports in Northern China. Unit: RMB/mt Unit: RMB/mt 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 #553#441#3303#2202 11-12-01 11-12-21 12-01-12 12-02-08 12-02-28 12-03-19 12-04-11 12-05-03 12-05-23 12-06-12 12-07-03 12-07-23 12-08-10 12-08-30 12-09-17 12-10-10 12-10-30 12-1
24、1-19 12-12-07 12-12-27 Figure 7: Price Trends of Metallurgical-Grade Silicon Metal at Huangpu Port Source: SMM Export Market Silicon Metal Exports Recover on Tariff Adjustment The report on eliminating tariff for silicon metal exports in 2013 greatly shored up export market. Traders overseas respond
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