13 Population and Poverty Reduction.doc

Population and Poverty Reduction人口和减少贫困1. Boosting Growth to Lift People out of Poverty加速经济增长,使人民摆脱贫困A paradox of the second half of the 20th century is that the would population underwent unprecedented growth-from 2.5 billion in 1950 to more than 6 billion in 2001-even as the population growth rate was declining. The decline was triggered largely by a drop in fertility rates. Between 1852 and 2001 fertility rates fell from 5.1 to 2.7 births per woman. Thus while the population grew by 1.5 percent a year in 1980-2001, the growth rate is expected to drop to 1 percent in 2001-2005.20世纪后半叶曾有这样一种看似矛盾的说法:即使人口增长率在不断下降,世界人口仍将经历一次空前的增长,即从1950年的25亿增至2001年的60亿以上.人口增长率的降低的主要原因是出生率的降低.在1852至2001年间,出生率由每名妇女生产5.1个婴儿降至2.7个婴儿。因此，在19802001年间，尽管人口以每年1.5的速率递增，在20012005年间，增长率将会降至1%。During the transition from high fertility and rapid population growth to lower fertility and slower growth, the working-age population expand relative to the dependent (younger and older) population, opening a demographic window of opportunity for economic growth. Countries can take advantage of this one-time opportunity if they invest appropriately in their human an physical capital and create employment opportunities for youth and for those who have not been working for wages. Several countries in East Asia, such as the Republic of Korea and Thailand, and a few Latin America, such as Brazil and Mexico, have done so. Bur South Asian countries that are now moving into the later stage of their transition to low fertility may not benefit from the demographic transition if they do not encourage growth, investment, and human capital development. The demographic window for these countries will close within a generation.从高出生率的人口快速增长期到低出生率的人口慢速增长期的过渡期间，相对于被抚养人口（老幼人口），工作年龄人口扩大了。从人口统计学的角度来看，这为经济增长提供了机会。国家可以通过对人力和实物资本的适当投资以及为青年人和非雇用人口创造就业机会来利用好这个一次性的机会。一些国家已经这样做了，比如东亚的韩国，泰国以及拉丁美洲的巴西和墨西哥。但是，如果不鼓励经济发展，投资及人力资本的发展，那些现在进入低出生率过渡期后期的南亚国家将不能从这次人口过渡的机会中受益。而且，在一代人的时间之内，这扇人口带来的机会的窗口将会对这些国家关闭。In many developing countries agriculture is still the main economic activity. As economies grow, more people work for wages. In most countries wages are rising steadily, increasing prosperity and raising standards of living.在许多发展中国家，农业仍然是主要的经济活动。随着经济的发展，将会有更多的人成为雇用人口。在大多数国家，工资的稳定增长促进了繁荣，提高了人民生活水平。In developing countries gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.3 percent a year in 1990s, and the share of people living on less than $1 a day fell from 29 percent to 23 percent. By 1999, 125 million fewer people were living in extreme poverty. But the poorest are often excluded from all but the lowest level of economic activity.20世纪90年代，发展中国家的国内生产总值以3.3%的速率逐年递增。每日生存花费低于一美元的人口比例从29%降至23%。截至1999年，生活在极度贫困中的人口数量减少了一亿两千五百万。但是，除了最低水平的经济活动，最贫困人口总是被其它经济活动排除在外。Progress in reducing poverty has been uneven. Within countries, the large gaps in social indicators between rich and poor confirm the persistence of deprivation. Globally, much of the decline in income poverty took place in East Asia, where sustained growth in China has lifted neared 150 million people out of poverty since 1990. And faster growth in India has led to a modest decline in the number of poor people in South Asia. But in other regions the number of poor people has increased even as their share in the population has declined-and in Europe and Central Asia both the number and the share of poor people has risen. Unemployment is high in many of the formerly centrally planned economies, with long-term unemployment hovering around 50 percent of total unemployment in the Czech Republic, Estonia, and Latvia in 1998-2001.消除贫困的进程的发展是不均衡的。在各个国家，社会指数显示的贫富之间的巨大差异，证明了剥削的持续。从全世界来看，贫困人口的减少主要发生在东亚。从1990起，中国的持续发展已经使一亿五千万人口脱离了贫困。印度的较快发展也使得南亚的贫困人数有所减少。但是在其他地区，虽然在总人口的所占比率降低了，但贫困人口的数量仍在增加。甚至在欧洲和中亚地区，贫困人口的数量和所占比率都在上升。19982001年间，在捷克，爱沙尼亚，拉脱维亚这样的从前是中央计划经济的国家，失业率很高。其中长期失业人口占总失业人口的近50%。2. Enhancing Security for Poor People提高贫困人口的保障水平Poor people face many risks. They face labor market risks, often having to take precarious jobs in the informal sector and put their children to work to increase household income. In Sub-Saharan Africa one in three children ages 10-14 was in the labor force in 2001. poor people also face health risks, with illness and injury having both direct and opportunity costs. In South Asia nearly 80 percent of all spending on health comes from private source, much of it out of pocket, exposing many households to the impoverishing effects of needed health care.贫困人口面临许多风险。他们面临劳动市场的风险，不得不常常在非正规的部门从事不稳定的工作，迫使孩子工作以增加家庭收入。2001年，在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，在1014岁的孩子中，有三分之一成为了劳动力。贫困人民同样面临健康的风险，伤病会同时消耗直接成本和机会成本。在南亚，所有医疗健康花费中的近80%来自个人财产，这使得必须的卫生保健对许多家庭产生了贫困效应。Enhancing security for poor people means reducing their vulnerability to ill health and economic shocks. Market-based insurance and pension schemes can reduce risk significantly, but they play only a minor role in many developing countries. In 16 developing countries public spending on pensions amounted to less than 0.5 percent of GDP in 1990s. to increase the security of poor people, national poverty reduction strategies must support their immediate consumption needs and protect their assets by ensuring access to basic services. Literacy training and health and nutrition services are often the most needed and most valued by poor people. Yet government spending in these areas remains low in many countries. In 2000 low-income countries public spending on health averaged 1 percent of GDP, compared with 6 percent for high-income countries.提高贫困人口的保障水平意味着降低他们面临疾病和经济危机的脆弱性。基于市场的保险和养老机制可以显著的降低贫困人口的风险，但是它在许多发展中国家仅起很小的作用。20世纪90年代，在16个发展中国家，公共支出中的养老金部分的比例低于国内生产总值的0.5。为了提高贫困人口的保障水平，国家的扶贫策略必须通过确保他们享有公共服务的权利，来支持他们的即期消费需求和保护他们的资产。贫困人民最需要，最重视的是知识培训和健康营养服务。然而，在许多国家，政府对这些领域的投入一直很低。2000年，相对于高收入国家的6%的比率，低收入国家在保健方面的公共支出，平均只达国内生产总值的1。3. Building Human Capital Through Education and Health Services通过教育和卫生服务构建人力资本Poor people lack the means to escape poverty. Increasing the productivity of their labor through investments in education and health is often the most effective way to improve their welfare.贫困人民缺乏手段来摆脱贫穷。通过对教育和健康的投资来提高他们的劳动生产力通常是改善他们的福利的最有效的途径。Investments in education widen horizons, making it easier for people to take advantage of new opportunities and helping them to participate in social an economic life. But despite increased spending on education, particularly primary education, enrollment rates remain low in many countries. In Sub-Saharan Africa primary enrollment rates declined between 1980 and 2000. Low primary enrollment typically reflects low participation by poor people. But in many poor countries it also has a gender dimension, reflecting traditional biases against girls “education and reliance girls” contributions to the household. One consequence of this imbalance: higher rates of illiteracy among women.对教育的投资能拓宽视野，使人们更容易利用新机会以及帮助他们参加社会和经济生活。但尽管增加了教育支出, 在许多国家，特别是初等教育的入学率依然很低。在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，初等教育的入学率在1980 年和2000 年之间下降了。初等教育的低入学率典型地反映了贫困人民的低参与率。但在许多贫困国家它还有一个性别层面的原因, 反映出对女孩的传统偏见。“教育和自立不属于女孩，女孩应为家庭服务。”这种不平衡状态的后果之一: 在妇女中的高文盲率。The public sector is the main provider of health care in developing countries-training medical personnel, investing in hospitals, and directly providing medical care. To reduce inequities, many countries have emphasized primary health care, including immunization, provision of sanitation, access to safe drinking water, and safe motherhood initiatives. Even so, much remains to be done. Child malnutrition remains a burden, with 22 countries having rates of more than 30 percent in 1990s. an estimated 40 million people are living with HIV/AIDS, an unprecedented public health challenge. And the reemergence of old diseases such as tuberculosis in Europe and Central Asia and parts of South and East Asia has put severe strains on health budgets. A high prevalence of disease in a country goes hand-in-hand with poor economic performance.在发展中国家，公共部门是医疗保健的主要提供者训练医疗人员, 对医院投资, 和直接提供卫生保健。为减少不公平, 许多国家着重于初级卫生保健, 包括免疫法、卫生设施的提供，安全饮用水的供应, 和安全孕产倡议。即使如此, 仍有许多工作要做。儿童营养不良依然是负担, 在20世纪90年代，22 个国家的此比例超过百分之30。估计4千万人民感染HIV/AIDS, 这对公共卫生是一个史无前例的挑战。旧疾病的再度出现，例如在欧洲，中亚和部份南亚和东亚的肺结核，对卫生预算施加了沉重的压力。疾病在一个国家的大流行通常伴随着经济的不振。There are many ways to measure poverty and its effects on peoples lives. The indicators reported here suffer from many shortcomings, noted in About the data of each table. But taken together, the indicators provide a broad picture of how well different economies are doing in reducing poverty, enhancing human security, and building human capital-and how large a task still faces many developing countries.可以用许多方式来衡量贫穷以及它对人民生活的影响。通过每张表格的数据可以看出，这里所报道的指标都有许多缺陷。但放在一起, 这些指标在为我们提供了一个总的情况：即，不同的经济体制在减少贫穷，提高人民生活保障，构建人力资本方面的表现如何。同时，我们也可以从中看出许多发展中国家面临的任务仍然艰巨。Enhancing security提高保障水平Impoverishing effect贫困效应Human capital人力资本