2010-2016中国快递行业市场分析与预测.pdf

IBISWorld and ACMR China Industry Report 12 May 2010 Courier Activities in China: 5990 DISCLAIMER This product has been supplied by IBISWorld Inc. ('IBISWorld') solely for use by its authorized licenses strictly in accordance with their license agreements with IBISWorld. IBISWorld and All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. (ACMR) makes no representation to any person with regard to the completeness or accuracy of the data or information contained herein, and it accepts no responsibility and disclaims all liability (save for liability which cannot be lawfully disclaimed) for loss or damage whatsoever suffered or incurred by any other person resulting from the use of, or reliance upon, the data or information contained herein. Copyright in this publication is owned by IBISWorld Inc. and All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. (ACMR). The publication is sold on the basis that the purchaser agrees not to copy the material contained within it for other than the purchasers own purposes. In the event that the purchaser uses or quotes from the material in this publication - in papers, reports, or opinions prepared for any other person - it is agreed that it will be sourced to IBISWorld Inc. Contents Industry Definition 3 ACTIVITIES (PRODUCTS AND SERVICES)3 SIMILAR INDUSTRIES3 DEMAND (2) Specific standards of units engaged in courier activities are clarified, including corporate qualifications, practitioner qualifications and the number of employees; and, (3) Fees and charges for express services are regulated, diminishing illegal price controls by several companies. Post Law of the People's Republic of China The Post Law was enacted by the State Post Bureau of the People's Republic of China in 1986. From April 2002, the State Post Bureau revised the law. The key issue in the revised Post Law which influences this industry greatly is the exclusive operating rights of EMS, the express company belonging to China Post. A revised law proposed that private courier packages whose weights are under 500 grams can only be delivered by EMS. If this law was enacted, most small domestic companies would have been forced out of business and these companies therefore opposed to proposed law. In a proposed revision, the lower limit weight was decreased to 350 grams, but the exclusive operating right covered not only private couriers but also business couriers, a policy that affected a wider range of industry participants. In further revisions, the level weight level was further decreased to 150 grams. However, the INDUSTRY CONDITIONS Courier Activities in China 12 May 2010 © Copyright 2010, IBISWorld Inc., All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. 18 regulation would force many players to raise the weight of their containers, enabling the whole weight of couriers to be over the lower level. Currently, the revised Law of Post has not been passed, but has received much attention from express companies. WTO Related Policies In December 2001, when China joined the WTO, the government permitted wholly foreign-owned enterprises to operate courier businesses after four years. In January 2003, the maximum share of foreign capital held in joint-venture express companies was increased to 75%. In December 2005, the Management on Foreign Investments in International Cargo Shipping Agents issued by the Ministry of Foreign Trade (2) EDI (Electronic Data Interchange) - Transmitting business files, such as orders, invoices, waybills, customs declaration, and import and export licenses, via the formation of data, among computers; (3) GPS (Global Positioning System) - Assisted by satellites, tracking items during courier services; (4) GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) - Mobile communications during express services depends on this system; (5) GIS (Geographic Information System) - Helping express companies to locate delivery destinations; (6) Data Warehouse and Data Mining - Many large players depend on this technology to manage customer relationships; and, (7) RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) - RFID is a non-contact automatic recognition technology based on the signal of radio frequency. This technology can greatly improve the working efficiency in dealing with parcels. These technology products and systems are widely adopted by large players, especially in the field of international express services. However, they are seldom utilized by small domestic players, especially for urban express services. INDUSTRY CONDITIONS Courier Activities in China 12 May 2010 © Copyright 2010, IBISWorld Inc., All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. 21 INDUSTRY VOLATILITY The level of volatility is medium Due to stable growth levels in this industry in recent years, industry revenue volatility is at a medium level. Stable and increasing demand from the commercial sector, as well as greater e-commerce demand, has also contributed to industry stability. Negative impacts of the global financial crisis that started in 2008 was limited on the industry. Industry revenue growth is expected to slow in future years, and remain stable, with the industry entering the mature phase of its life cycle. GLOBALIZATION The level of Globalization is medium The trend of Globalization is increasing Although there is only a very small number of foreign enterprises operating in the industry, they generate an expected 49.2% of industry revenue in 2010, indicating a medium industry globalization level. The globalization level had been low for many years and has only increased recently. The government had been protecting the National Post Service from competition from the international logistics leaders in the late-1990s to the early- 2000s, resulting in a low globalization level for a long period of time. Several large foreign enterprises entered this industry through establishing joint ventures, especially with China National Foreign Trade Transportation (Group) Corporation (Sinotrans), a large state-owned logistics group engaged in comprehensive transport businesses. After 2005, the restriction that foreign enterprises shall own no more than a 50% stake in joint ventures was lifted, and several large players, such as FedEx, UPS and TNT have established wholly-owned enterprises in China. Industry globalization is expected to further increase in the future. INDUSTRY CONDITIONS Courier Activities in China 12 May 2010 © Copyright 2010, IBISWorld Inc., All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. 22 Enterprise Ownership Shares, 2009 Ownership Type Percentage Revenue Share Percentage Enterprises Number Share State Owned 5.1 1.8 Collectively Owned 1.0 0.9 JECE 0.4 1.2 Shareholding 2.6 1.8 Private 27.4 79.6 Foreign 49.2 1.6 Other 14.3 13.1 Source: National Bureau of Statistics China Note: JECE is short for “joint-equity cooperative enterprise“ KEY FACTORS Courier Activities in China 12 May 2010 © Copyright 2010, IBISWorld Inc., All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. 23 Key Factors KEY SENSITIVITIES The key sensitivities affecting the performance of the Courier Activities industry include: Growth (GDP) private enterprises generally compete in the urban express segment; and, foreign enterprises dominate the international express segment. The three segments, inland express, urban express and international express, are expected to account for 44.2%, 14.3% and 39.5% of industry revenue, respectively, in 2010. Also, the three types of companies have their own advantages. Private companies have cost advantages, and their services are generally fast and flexible. State-owned companies have established widespread networks for many years, and most of them have built up their own brands. Foreign companies have large global express networks and, with capital and technological advantages, provide the highest quality services. Mergers and Acquisitions The market changed greatly in the past decade, especially after China joined the WTO, influenced this industry in several ways. Firstly, foreign companies sought to develop their businesses and, therefore, established partnerships with domestic companies. Secondly, facing challenges from international logistics leaders, domestic players also joined forces to survive. Therefore, many mergers and acquisitions occurred, raising the concentration level of this industry, especially in the international express and inland express segments. The acquisitions of local express companies by international express giants accelerated after the restriction that foreign express companies shall not establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China was lifted in December 2005. HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE Courier services and activities first emerged in China in the 1980s. The historical performance of the Courier Activities Industry in China can be divided into two periods: the introduction period in the 1980s, and the acceleration period after the mid-1990s. In the introduction period, several international express companies, such as DHL, UPS, FedEx, TNT, OCS, Airborne and AAE, began to develop the Chinese market. However, to protect the national postal services in China, the government only permitted foreign companies to establish joint ventures and their stake was not to exceed 50%. Each of the four largest international players established partnerships with China National Foreign Trade Transportation (Group) Corporation (Sinotrans). In 1980, DHL first entered the Chinese market as an agent of Sinotrans. In 1986, DHL established a joint-venture company with Sinotrans, operating international express services in China. In 1984, FedEx and Sinotrans invested in a joint-venture express company, and FedEx began to develop its business in China. In 1997, the partnership of FedEx and Sinotrans expired, and FedEx established a partnership with EAS International Transportation Ltd., a large domestic company. In 1999, DTW, another large domestic player, became the new partner of FedEx in China, and their joint venture lasted to the end of 2005. In 1988, UPS became an agent of Sinotrans in China, and started to explore this market. In 1996, UPS established its joint-venture company with Sinotrans in Beijing. Also in 1988, TNT established a joint-venture company with Sinotrans, a partnership that lasted to 2003. INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE Courier Activities in China 12 May 2010 © Copyright 2010, IBISWorld Inc., All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. 33 In the historical period, the four largest players brought high quality courier services to China, and then stimulated the demand for international express services, accelerating the development of this market in the 1980s and 1990s. Also, in the whole courier service market, EMS, a subsidiary of China Post, had a significant advantage in that period with its strong background and the protective government policies. In 1980 and 1984, EMS introduced its international and domestic express service, respectively, and the national postal express occupied the express market in China. Therefore, the market of non-national postal express, or the Courier Activities Industry in China was relatively small in the period. Since the middle of the 1990s, several large state-owned express companies such as CRE and China Air Express were founded, and the development of the Courier Activities Industry in China accelerated. In addition, many private express companies began to enter the market, especially the segment of urban express services. For example, Beijing ZJS express was founded in 1994, when it was only a small urban express company, but now, it has extended its business to international express services. During the period from 2000 to 2005, this industry was in its fast-growing stage. Industry revenue increased from $831.3 million in 2000 to $2.94 billion in 2005 (constant 2010 dollars). This represented an annualized growth rate of 28.8%. Revenue (constant prices) Revenue $ US Million Growth % 1999 643.3 N/A 2000 831.3 29.2 2001 1,053.0 26.7 2002 1,371.2 30.2 2003 1,797.1 31.1 2004 2,278.8 26.8 2005 2,943.0 29.1 2006 3,854.1 31.0 2007 5,103.0 32.4 2008 6,539.1 28.1 2009 7,655.0 17.1 2010 9,193.7 20.1 INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE Courier Activities in China 12 May 2010 © Copyright 2010, IBISWorld Inc., All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. 34 Revenue Revenue Growth Rate Gross Product (constant prices) Gross Product $ US Million Growth % 1999 210.6 N/A 2000 278.1 32.1 2001 361.4 30.0 2002 456.7 26.4 2003 602.6 31.9 2004 755.7 25.4 2005 973.0 28.8 2006 1,254.9 29.0 2007 1,632.1 30.1 2008 2,104.9 29.0 2009 2,416.4 14.8 2010 2,957.7 22.4 INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE Courier Activities in China 12 May 2010 © Copyright 2010, IBISWorld Inc., All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. 35 Gross Product Gross Product Growth Rate OUTLOOK Courier Activities in China 12 May 2010 © Copyright 2010, IBISWorld Inc., All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. 36 Outlook Revenue (constant prices) Revenue $ US Million Growth % 2011 10,876.1 18.3 2012 12,616.3 16.0 2013 14,470.9 14.7 2014 16,250.8 12.3 2015 17,973.4 10.6 2016 19,483.1 8.4 Revenue Revenue Growth Rate Gross Product (constant prices) Gross Product $ US Million Growth % 2011 3,513.7 18.8 2012 4,128.6 17.5 2013 4,797.5 16.2 2014 5,473.9 14.1 2015 6,114.3 11.7 2016 6,703.1 9.6 OUTLOOK Courier Activities in China 12 May 2010 © Copyright 2010, IBISWorld Inc., All China Marketing Research Co., Ltd. 37 Gross Product Gross Product Growth Rate ACMR-IBISWorld forecasts that in the five years to 2015, the Courier Activities Industry in China will maintain solid growth, but at a slower rate as the industry matures. Several drivers will stimulate growth, including strong domestic economic growth, increasing international trade levels, technological progress, improving transport infrastructure, increased levels of on-line shopping, and a greater presence of foreign firms. It is expected that in future years, China's GDP will continue its rapid growth, averaging around 8% a year to 2015. As courier activities relate closely to the whole economy, this industry is expected to experience rapid growth. Increased international business levels, contact and communications will also benefit courier activities, especially in the international express segment. The development of technology and systems applied to courier activities is expected to improve rapidly, partly due to the entry of international logistics leaders. Transport infrastructure will improve and more highways and airports are expected to be built in the coming years, improving the working efficiency of courier activities. Improved productivity and efficiency in this industry in the future will contribute to more competitive pricing levels, which will also drive increased downstream demand. Courier activities driven by on-line shopping have been growing rapidly in recent years. As online shopping depends on courier activities, the development of this retailing segment will further stimulate demand for courier activities. After the three largest players in this industry established their wholly-owned