BMI Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010.pdf

Q4 2010 www.businessmonitor.com consumer electronics report issn 2042-132X published by Business monitor international ltd. inDonesiA INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subsbusinessmonitor.com Web: http:/www.businessmonitor.com © 2010 Business Monitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. 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INDONESIA CONSUMER ELECTRONICS REPORT Q4 2010 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Part of BMIs Industry Report opens service centre Nokia is the market leader in the Indonesia handset market with a share of at least 50% ahead of Samsung and Sony Ericsson 97% of the market is prepaid, and in the last two years, Nokia has sought to reach further into the mass-market segment with launches of low-end mobile phones such as the Nokia 1680 classic, Nokia 2680 slide and Nokia 5000. In 2009, Nokia sales in Indonesia reached IRP29trn, from IRP25 trn in the previous year. In November 2009, Nokia said that it was considering launching its new Nokia Life Tools service in Indonesia to target rural customers. The service offers subscribers information on agriculture, education and entertainment through the medium of SMS. The service was launched in India in June 2009. Nokia is also strong in the CDMA handset segment as a result of a partnership with Flexi, the CDMA fixed wireless brand of Telkom Indonesia. Nokia is thought to have around a 70% share of the CDMA terminal market, ahead of Motorola and Samsung. Meanwhile, by the end of 2009, Samsung had hoped to move ahead of Sony Ericsson into second place in the brand handset market. Samsungs share was thought to be less than 10%, but the company had launched around 15 new models in Indonesia in 2009 in an attempt to boost its penetration. The company set a target of 100,000 units per month after releasing its new Crosby handset, which was priced at IDR1.4mn per unit. Mobile phones now account for around half of Samsungs revenues in the Indonesian market. For its part, fellow Korean vendor LG said that, in the period January to September 2009, its local handset sales had reached 14.1mn units. This represented growth of 7.9% from the same period of the previous year. LG expects to grow by targeting the mid-tier market of handsets priced at between IDR1- 2mn. In October 2009, LG released its GW300 model priced at IDR1.5mn, and the company set a target of 80,000 local sales for the handset by the end of the year. However, the Indonesian handset market is distorted by the presence of a large grey segment, which accounts for about half the market. Handset imports were estimated at around US$716mn, only 52% of the estimated market value of US$1.38bn. Much of the demand is filled by illegal imports and refurbished products. Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 42 In addition to the issue of piracy, the leading brands have lost share in the last couple of years to new Chinese brand entrants. Chinese handsets have secured a strong position in the market, competing on price while showing improvements in quality. Leading Chinese vendor such as TCL have been exploring the Indonesia market since 2008 and are increasingly turning their attention to emerging markets that have been less affected by the global economic crisis. Chinese brands such as Hitech and StarTech sell hundreds of units at day at leading city outlets, even though they are not yet the brands of choice for status-conscious professionals. The advance of the Chinese vendors mirrors competitive developments in other consumer electronics product segments. In 2009, the Chinese brands moved aggressively into the emerging smartphone segment where they challenged global brands such as BlackBerry and Nokia. A number of copycat smartphones appeared in 2009. One of the most popular was the Nexian G900, popularly known as the NexianBerry, because of its similarity to the Research In Motion (RIM) BlackBerry smartphones. The Nexian G900 was launched by telecoms operator XL on May 1 2009 and retailed at less than IRP1mn, compared with 2.1mn for the BlackBerry Pearl and 5.4mn for the BlackBerry Bold. Meanwhile, the same handset was offered by Telkomsel for just IRP 599,000. The producers of the NexianBerry believed that it would sell around 2mn units by the end of 2009. Nexian was just of a large number of low-cost brands to flourish in the Indonesian market in 2009, many of them Chinese produced. HT-Mobile expected to sell at least 50,000 units a month. Other popular brands included Mito Slim, Taxco, K-Touch, Dezzo, ToCall, Titan and Tiphone, all with models available for below IDR1mn. In reaction to both the piracy issue and competition from cheaper Chinese brands, leading vendors have had to respond by releasing their own low-priced products. LG and Samsung have sought to partner with operator bundling programmes, while Nokia has adopted an independent approach. Vendors were also reportedly looking more closely at local handset production. The Ministry of Telecommunications and Information Industry recently reported that one European vendor, thought to be Nokia, and two Asian vendors were preparing to invest roughly US$100mn each to establish production facilities in West Java. Although the market for PDAs and smartphones is a small niche, it is a growing competitive battleground. As of H209, the market was dominated by RIMs Blackberry products. The top three GSM operators in Indonesia, Indosat, Excelcomindo and Telkomsel, all have partnerships with RIM to offer BlackBerry products and services. Excelcomindo signed an agreement with Erafone, one of the largest mobile phone retail chains in Indonesia, which will now provide the BlackBerry Bold and other models. Meanwhile Globe RIM has also expanded its contract with global mobile handset distributor Brightpoint to cover logistics and supply chain services for BlackBerry smartphones in Indonesia. Brightpoint has appointed local distribution company Teletama as a distributor of BlackBerry products in Indonesia, Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 43 including the BlackBerry Bold 970, and BloackBerry Curve 890 and 8520 models. Telemata has more than 80 retail locations spread across 7 major Indonesian cities. It was estimated that by the end of 2009 the number of BlackBerry users in Indonesia could reach around 1mn, up from 350,000 at the end of 2008. However, at least 80% of sales had been through the grey market. In April 2010, RIM released its BlackBerry Storm2 smartphone on the Indonesian market. In H109 Indonesias Post and Telecommunications Directorate threatened RIM with the postponement of its certification of RIM products due to RIMs alleged failure to comply with regulations concerning service facilities. However, RIM apparently resolved the situation by announcing that service centres would be operational in Indonesia from the end of August 2009. In September, the Communications Ministry approved RIMs Jakarta office and lifted a two-month freeze on the sale of Blackberry handsets. RIM has been pushing to increase legal sales of its products, which are now available through 50 licensed distributors across the country. The launch of Blackberry Connect, a push-email service, has helped to drive the popularity of the devices. Meanwhile, there are a large number of rival products including Apples iPhone, launched in Indonesia by Telkomsel in March 2009 and available for around US$220 from Telkomsel distributors such as TraPARI, Trokomsel, Oke and Telesindo. However the iPhone was reported to have only around 15,000 users as of September 2009. In 2010, leading mobile operator Indosat is looking to provide smartphones based on the Android operating system to boost its sales in the smartphones segment. In March 2010, Indosat launched its first Android-based services in Indonesia, and the company has ordered 50,000 Android smartphones from six producers. The vendors who are providing Indosat with Android-based handsets are HTC with its HTC Hero, Motorola with Motorola Milestone, Samsung with its Galaxy Spica model, LG with its LG GW620 and Sony Ericsson with its Xperia X10. Samsung launched its Android Galaxy Spica model in Indonesia in February 2010, with sales reported by the company to have been satisfactory. The smartphone was available from five Indonesian mobile operators at a retail price of IPR3.49mn, budnled with various unlimited internet access packages. Meanwhile a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed between PT Indonesia Mobile Resources and Bruneian mobile handset manufacturer BDFone Sdn Bhd regarding the production and distribution of the vendor's low-cost high-end smartphones in provincial Indonesia. BMI believes this move reflects a growing trend within the mobile sector in emerging markets for operators to turn to vendors offering quality products at affordable prices, based on low-cost production bases that increasingly are no longer centred on China or Taiwa The deal will see BDFone's smart and feature phones manufactured in Indonesia and marketed under an Indonesia-specific brand name, Comodo. The longer term aim is to have the Comodo family of handsets Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 44 sold in other Asian markets, particularly where the existing and future demand for affordable handsets is high. BDFone has previously indicated its long-term plan is to expand into other Asian markets, starting with the Philippines and Cambodia. Other available smartphones include Samsungs Omnia 3G HSDPA phone, Nokias 5800, and models from Sony Ericsson, HTC and others. In 2008 LG launched its first PDA-phone product in the Indonesia market, the LG KS20, and stated its intention to seize 10% of the local PDA market. Meanwhile, in August 2009, notebook giant Acer entered the smartphone market with the local release of four smartphones following the conclusion of an agreement with PT Golden Victory Indonesia. The Acer smartphones will be available at all Acer computer outlets in Indonesia. Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 45 -15.0-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.0 0-4 5-9 1 0-1 4 1 5-1 9 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ Population by age, 2005 MaleFemale -30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.0 0-4 5-9 1 0-1 4 1 5-1 9 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ Population by age, 2005:2030 (total) 20302005 Country Snapshot: Indonesia Demographic Data Section 1: Population Figures in millions. Source: UN Population Division Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 2005 2010f 2020f 2030f Dependent population, % of total 34.2 33.3 30.4 30.7 Dependent population, total, 000 75,633 78,049 79,630 85,997 Active population, % of total 65.7 66.6 69.5 69.2 Active population, total, 000 144,926 156,238 182,239 193,669 Youth population*, % of total 29.1 27.7 22. 8 20.0 Youth population*, total, 000 64,359 64,980 59,917 56,019 Pensionable population, % of total 5.1 5.5 7.5 10.7 Pensionable population, total, 000 11,274 13,069 19,713 29,978 f = forecast. * Youth = under 15. Source: UN Population Division Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 46 Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 2005 2010f 2020f 2030f Urban population, % of total 47.9 53.2 62.6 68.9 Rural population, % of total 52.1 46.8 37.4 31.1 Urban population, total, 000 106,668 125,346 163,850 192,805 Rural population, total, 000 116,114 110,409 98,018 86,861 Total population, 000 222,782 235,755 261,868 279,666 f = forecast. Source: UN Population Division Section 2: Education And Healthcare Table: Education, 2000-2005 2000/01 2004/05 Gross enrolment, primary 115 115 Gross enrolment, secondary 59 62 Gross enrolment, tertiary 15 17 Adult literacy, male, % 94.0 na Adult literacy, female, % 86.8 na Gross enrolment is the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education regardless of age expressed as a percentage of the population in the theoretical age group for that level of education. na = not available. Source: UNESCO Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 2005 2010f 2020f 2030f Life expectancy at birth, males (years) 64.6 67.0 71.4 73.5 Life expectancy at birth, females (years) 68.6 70.5 75.7 77.9 Life expectancy estimated at 2005; f = forecast. Source: UNESCO Indonesia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 47 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Economically active population, 000 na na na na 105,802 106,282 % change y-o-y na na na na na 0.4 % of total population na na na na 46.8 46.4 Employment, 000 90,807 91,647 90,785 93,722 94,948 95,177 % change y-o-y 1.0 0.9 -0.9 3.2 1.3 0.2 male 57,131 58,583 59,909 60,582 60,769 61,864 female 33,676 33,064 30,876 33,141 34,210 33,313 female, % of total 37 36 34 35.3 36 35 Total employment, % of labour force na na na na 89.74 89.55 Unemployment, 000 8,005 9,132 9,531 10,251 10,854 11,105 unemployment rate, % 8.1 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.5 na = not available. Source: ILO Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) 2000 2006 2007e 2008f 2009f 2010f Consumer expenditure per capita 416 961 1,195 1,283 1,450 1,802 Poorest 20%, expenditure per capita 175 404 502 539 609 757 Richest 20%, expenditure per capita 900 2,081 2,588 2,778 3,138 3,902 Richest 10%, expenditure per capita 1,185 2,739 3,407 3,657 4,131 5,137 Middle 60%, expenditure per capita 335 774 962 1,033 1,167 1,451 Purchasing power parity Consumer expenditure per capita 1,570 2,499 2,658 na na na Poorest 20%, expenditure per capita 659 1,0