China Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010.pdf

Q4 2010 www.businessmonitor.com consumer electronics report issn 2040-9419 published by Business monitor international ltd. cHinA INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: subsbusinessmonitor.com Web: http:/www.businessmonitor.com © 2010 Business Monitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. CHINA CONSUMER ELECTRONICS REPORT Q4 2010 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Part of BMIs Industry Report however, because much of the unit growth came from low-cost netbooks, there was continued pressure on average selling prices and margins. According to market research firm DisplaySearch, the average selling price of notebooks fell by 10% in Q209 year-on-year (y-o-y) and that of netbooks by almost 30%. . China Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 17 BMI forecasts that computer hardware CAGR for the 2010-2014 period will be around 12%, with small and medium- sized enterprises (SMEs), smaller towns and rural areas driving growth, along with replacement of desktops with notebooks. More than 34mn computers are expected to be sold in China in 2010, driven by some key overall PC market drivers: The roll-out of 3G mobile services by Chinas mobile telecoms network operators, which will further stimulate sales of netbooks and potentially of tablet computers; Government subsidy programmes that boost demand from the vast, under-penetrated rural areas. In addition to low incomes, vendors also face the challenges of geography and underdevelopment in Chinas vast rural hinterland, where villages are often widely dispersed and far from the nearest large town. Vendors such as Lenovo and HP have been aggressively expanding their sales networks outside Chinas largest cities. The government hopes to stimulate the purchase of PCs and home appliances throughout the countrys rural regions, where average annual per capita income is only US$700. The governments CNY4trn stimulus package has helped to improve consumer sentiment, particularly with subsidies for PC buyers in rural areas. According to government figures, as of August 2009, around 414,000 computers had been sold under the programme, which provides a 13% subsidy for purchase of certain products. By some estimates, the programme had added more than 1mn computers to total 2009 PC shipments. While this was a relatively small portion of the total for the year, this development allowed vendors to build their distribution channels and presence in rural areas that have more growth potential. Chinas three main mobile telecoms network operators China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom have all launched 3G services and are offering subsidised netbook computers bundled with their mobile data packages. Prices of mobile broadband have continued to fall; China Mobile now offers a 500Mb data package for just CNY50 per month (US$5.60). As of Q309, China Mobile was offering subscribers a choice of around 27 different netbook models, all of which came preloaded with its 3G network. Computer Demand 2007-2014f China Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 18 Notebook sales were estimated to account for around 40% of China PC shipments in 2009. Notebook shipments were boosted by the popularity of netbooks, which comprised around 15% of the total notebook market, compared with less than 10% in 2008. Meanwhile, sluggish corporate and enterprise demand in 2009 saw the desktop market contract by a single-digit factor. Demand for lower-cost netbooks will be a key growth driver, with the promotion of 3G netbooks, bundled with newly launched domestic 3G services, helping to attract consumers. 3G netbooks were available in 2009 for less than CNY3,000 from service providers including a CNY2,100 service credit. It is estimated that more than 1mn netbook units could be sold through this channel in 2010. However, the netbook surge lost some momentum in the second half of the year. Sales, though initially promising, fell short of perhaps unrealistic expectations. Technical problems due in part to the rush to get products to market may have contributed to this issue, and many Chinese consumers did not seem to appreciate the smaller screens and less powerful performance compared with a notebook. In addition, operators were paying up to CNY2,100 (US$309) per netbook unit in subsidy. By the end of the year, China Mobile was rumoured to be considering exiting the netbook business altogether and focusing its 3G business exclusively on handsets and dongles. This year has also seen the emergence of tablet notebooks, spearheaded by Apples iPad. In May, China Mobile announced that it was interested in selling the iPad, but an official release is likely to take some time, as it took the iPhone two years longer to reach the Chinese market than other countries. In the meantime, however, unofficial and illegally imported versions of the iPad are widely available in China. It has been estimated that there are around 100,000 iPads in China, equivalent to about 5% of the total sold worldwide. The iPad supports simplified Chinese character input and local companies are busy developing Chinese apps for the device. Chinese TV station Phoenix TV has released Chinese video content for the iPad, as well as a video-based app that is available from both its own store and the Apple apps website. Other Chinese vendors are expected to follow Apple in releasing net tablet devices, which have a form factor between the size of a smartphone and a netbook. Copycat devices are already available on the local market for a far lower cost than the US$500 upwards required to purchase an iPad. Indeed, some are more than simply clones of the Apple device, and versions that run off Android and Symbian operating system clones are likely to arrive with low prices and China-specific content. China Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 19 Tablet PCs are not a new form factor but are now being designed to appeal to consumers who find a smartphone inconvenient for consuming video media or surfing the web, but for whom a netbook is still too big or heavy. NetTabs are expected to be significantly more expensive than smartphones but, despite a previous mixed record with this form factor, are seen as a growth area in 2010-2011. Another area that vendors will watch is the e-reader market. The growth focus for the PC market has increasingly shifted beyond tier-one cities to more remote areas. Demand over the forecast period is expected by BMI to grow strongest in rural areas and cities in tier three and below, with booms being recorded in recent quarters in provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi. This is posing challenges for major market players such as Lenovo, HP and Founder, which are having to leverage local distributor networks to extend their reach. While nationwide distributors such as Digital China have strong relationships with the major vendors, local distributors are seen as being crucial to the mainlands township market. Another major growth opportunity comes from the SME sector. The market value of SME hardware was estimated by BMI at around US$8bn in 2008. Servers and networking equipment will form the fastest- growing elements of SME demand, with entry and mid-range servers showing the greatest potential. Unit sales growth will be much higher than revenues, as intense competition is leading to aggressive price cuts. Market leaders Dell, HP and Lenovo are all following each other in cutting prices and expanding production. Dells announcement that it is to lower costs in China through procurement of AMD chips signifies more downward pressure ahead and, facing a declining market share, Lenovo has recently signalled that it will also cut prices further. AV Table: AV Demand 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f AV sales (US$mn) 39,028 39,817 52,740 64,395 69,364 74,982 81,008 86,699 Video applications (US$mn) 29,661 31,456 46,411 57,955 62,774 68,234 74,122 79,763 Audio applications ($ mn) 5,551 5,017 6,329 6,439 6,590 6,748 6,886 6,936 LCD TV set sales (000) 10,282 13,412 23,867 33,945 40,109 47,589 56,465 66,403 Digital camera sales (000) 7,910 9,492 10,346 11,381 12,747 14,149 15,705 17,276 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI China Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 20 BMI has upwardly revised its five-year AV segment forecast in line with a faster previously projected conversion rate of CRT TV sets to flat-panel display. The AV market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.5% to around US$86.7bn by 2014. The main growth area going forward will be digital products such as LCD TV sets, which are becoming necessities for consumers. Digital TV sets already account for above 60% of TV unit sales and will account for more than 80% by 2014; TV revenues account for more than half of total AV demand. Chinese sales of AV devices are forecast to achieve accelerated growth in H210, after weaker-than- expected sales of LCD TV sets in H110 resulted in rising inventory levels. The second phase of the governments household electronics products subsidy for rural residents is expected to be an important driver in the second half of the year. Sales of consumer electronics products were strong during the Chinese New Year peak season in February 2010, driven by government stimulus money and technology evolution. During the National Day Golden Week holiday period in October 2009, sales of flat-screen TV sets and digital cameras had also soared as average daily retail sales rose 18% compared with the same period of 2008. China has an estimated 450mn TV households, with an average of around 1.12 sets per household. Total TV annual set sales have been estimated at above 40mn sets. Flat-panel TV sets will be the main driver of AV category revenues growth over the forecast period as consumers upgrade and trade their old CRT models. According to industry insiders, in 2009, Chinese consumers showed a strong preference for large screen TVs, with the average size of flat-screen sets sold during the October holiday said to be above 37 inches, up from 33.6 inches in September. This can be attributed to a strong marketing push by Chinese vendors for 42-inch sets. About 33.9mn LCD TV sets are projected to be sold in 2010, exceeding previous forecasts, with substantial sales during the October holiday season. Impetus also came from product innovations like LED technology and backlighting, which became more popular, rather than from price-cutting as profitability remained stable. Sales of larger sets with screen sizes of 42 inches or more are expected to continue to grow rapidly and could pass 50% of total sales in 2011. AV Device Demand 2007-2014f e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: BMI China Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2010 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 21 In 2010, internet-enabled TV sets are expected to be a growth area, as Chinese urban consumers increasingly see TVs as interactive multimedia hubs. Local manufacturers such as TCL, Konka and Changhong are leading the drive to make TV sets affordable platforms for online information sharing, and multimedia immersion. Konka announced in December 2009 that in 2010 it would focus on internet TVs, and would no longer produce standard flat-panel TV sets without internet access after May 2010. Market research firm All View Consulting has estimated that as many as 30% of LCD TV sets sold in the China market in 2010 could be internet-enabled. The Chamber of Commerce projected sale of 1mn LED TV sets by the end of 2009. Sales could rise to 4mn in 2010 and double again to 8mn in 2011. Some vendor estimates have been higher, with Chinese manufacturer Changhong projecting sales of 5.55mn LED TV sets in China in 2010. LED sets cost around 30% more on average than a standard LED TV set. Meanwhile, the 3D TV set market has been launched in China, although high prices of around CNY10,000 more than comparable LCD TV sets will limit potential. Samsung reported sales of around 3,000 3D TVs during the May 1 holiday period. In H109, a Chinese colour TV industry forum hosted by electronics retail giant GOME projected that CRT TV sets would have more or less disappeared from Chinas market by 2015. Falling prices are an important driver, with the average price of an LCD set falling about 15% in the first nine months of 2008, according to figures from New York management consultancy Oliver Wyman. By Q409, an average 42- inch LCD TV set cost around CNY6,000. In 2010, Chinas subsidy programme for rural residents for purchase of household electronics goods could result in sales of over 10mn flat-panel TVs in 2010, according to projections from the China Video Industry Association. Following the introduction of the programme in January 2009, sales of domestic AV products were reportedly boosted by 10.7% in January-May 2009. In 2010, subsidies on TV sets were increased to cover TVs that cost as much as CNY7,000, up from a maximum of CNY3,500 in 2009. The expansion means that, in 2010, as many as 70% of rural TV set sales could be underpinned by the scheme. Subsidy schemes for colour TV sets have been running in some areas since 2007. A typical subsidy level for TV sets under the programme has been around 13%, with this level available at various times in the agricultural provinces of Shandong, Henan and Sichuan, as well as Qingdao City. For TV sets costing CNY3,500-7,000, a CNY455 subsidy will now be paid. In 2009, the government expanded the scheme to 14 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. The third- and fourth-tier market will therefore play an important role in driving sales during BMIs forecas