EQUITIES：_DAILY_NEWSFLOW-2012-10-16.pdf

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Europe Periodical German 1) a poorly differentiated product competing in a generic market with PDE-5 inhibitors, to 2) a new treatment paradigm for PAH patients finding its own place in the treatment pathway (possibly before or with ETRAs). Key to success will be strong and consistent data and importantly a positive study in the analogous but differentiating indication of CTEPH. Risk/reward favorable (2% down/ 5% up) Riociguat could be entering a $3.6bn PAH market but currently our forecasts carry riociguat with only a 30% chance of success (or 250m 2016e sales), representing 1.5 NPV/share (2%) to our 71 price target. Should riociguat be successful (defined as positive in PAH and CTEPH) the drug potentially could add 5% to our price target and represent an NPV of 5/share (7%). Valuation we think that based on the booking of a large order in Metals in summer and several orders in tissue/ paper/fiber making/processing equipment, Q3 order intake should be solid. Pulp mill orders confirmed, solid overall project activity mains unchanged By segment, the 4 pulpmill projects pipeline has been confirmed again, with the pot. award of two in the next quarters seen as the best case; in Pulp in Hydro, project activity has remained solid, progress good with regards to tidal current turbines and demand growing for pumped storage power stations, low US gas prices could have a neg. effect on gas fired power plants which is not yet recorded however; for Separation, which incl. mining applications, large-project flow has slowed somewhat, but small in Metals, mgmt sees a rather flattish business with no more potential for orders from industry consolidation moves short-term, after having booked one large order in summer, as mentioned. Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain exposure limited, China slowdown confirmed Remaining exposure to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain is as low as 3%, so Euro/debt crisis issues in these countries are unlikely to have a major effect; what could hurt if Spain would cut back on planned hydro power investments (which however has not become visible yet); in China, the growth slowdown is clearly not considered positive but exposure is rather small at 12%; Andritz has been trying to increase the foothold but the market remains closed up with local suppliers fighting for the few orders in a declining market (we note that China's 5yr planning includes substantial investments in hydro). Outlook specified and in line, Schuler consolidation likely from Q1-13E Regarding the group outlook, 2012E is tagged with a E5bn rev target and 7% EBITA margins, with E6bn within reach. from Schuler consolidation in 2013E (too early for a spec. guidance based on outstanding deal closing), which is expected in Q1 but could last until Jun-13E at latest; as such, no big surprises and quite cautious on organic growth as usual, but FY targets even imply some upside to our numbers (DBe E4.9bn revs also, additional M we add that 1) new technology launches (TwinServo etc.) appear promising as well and 2) besides pot. sourcing, distribution and revenue synergies (possible expansion from premium European export into the Chinese car mass market), the due completion of the integration of Schuler and Müller Weingarten (only started in 2010 due to antitrust requirements) should still imply underlying margin enhancement potential; with the CEO acknowledging that the car cycle looks peakish, mid-term growth potential is supported by global car/light truck manufacturing growth expected at 4.3% CAGR 2008-16E (also driven by increasing manufacturing shift to emerging markets) and volume growth of tailor-welded blanks expected at 6.6% (source: Andritz CMD materials, citing industry sources/studies); here, with tailor-welded blanks being the main steel component employed, Schuler equipment is also covering other materials used in car making, such as carbon fiber and plastics; for aluminum, which is also expected to grow strongly as % of overall car-making materials along with the trend to lighter weight design, casting instead of pressing is still the dominating technique; still, we would not rule out that the Schuler technology portfolio is expanded (pot. by add-on acquisitions at a later stage). In the shorter term, we think Schuler should head towards record revenues and margin this year and continue flattish next (also note Duerr's still very optimistic statements from China CMD), supported by record backlog (E1.2bn, E0.9bn sales) and strong 9.5% EBITDA margins. Cross-read from recent Duerr CMD in China and DB field trip (see note 11 Oct) As stated in our feedback note from 11 Oct, Chinese overall car market growth (7% YTD) is not expected to accelerate much in the coming months with the economy being hurt by slowing export business and the political change-over process. Most participants we met nevertheless continued to see 10% annual growth in the years to come. As such, Duerr (40% global market share in paint shops but an estimated 70% in China), expects to build at least 4-5 paint shops annually until 2016 in China. With overcapacity risk still high for China and Duerrs orders from emerging markets declining for 3 quarters in a row and turning negative for the first time in Q2, we now understand that Chinese growth should continue in H2 and revenue and margin development remain strong in the coming quarters (DB sector analyst view). Matthias Pfeifenberger (+43) 1 53181-153 matthias.pfeifenbergerdb.com Peter Reilly (+44) 20 754-59835 peter.reillydb.com 15 October 2012 German 2) The distributor expects CP prices to increase by 2-2.5%. Suppliers are asking for more but distributors will exercise their negotiating power. We stress that the pricing predictions of the same distributor last year proved to be precisely right; 3) Generics do not appear to represent a threat in France due to the regulations and farmers appetite for high-end technologies (particularly at current crop prices); 4) The upcoming CAP reform (2014) is expected to reduce Western European farm profits due to a cut in subsidies Phosphate (P) and potash (K) appear the most at risk from lower application; 5) Syngenta sees growth opportunities in the mature French market, notably in the field of cereal herbicides, vineyards and hybrid cereals; 6) Syngentas integrated strategy should help drive an overall market share increase, notably through the ability to leverage its strong existing CP presence to seeds; 7) On fertilizers, in this very supportive backdrop, the farmers met are planning to apply 10% more P and K fertilizer in order to make up for the lower application in 2009. Nitrogen (N) application is more stable but is nonetheless expected to increase by 5%. On N, we note the farmers and the cooperative have bought less than usual so far in the season which may support demand in the coming months. Farmers Q S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates EPS German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance in local cur. (%)EPSP/E German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance in local cur. (%)EPSP/E German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance (%)EPSP/E German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance (%)EPSP/E 15 October 2012 German as a result, the recommendations may differ and the price targets and estimates of each may vary widely. In August 2009, Deutsche Bank instituted a new policy whereby analysts may choose not to set or maintain a target price of certain issuers under coverage with a Hold rating. In particular, this will typically occur for “Hold“ rated stocks having a market cap smaller than most other companies in its sector or region. We believe that such policy will allow us to make best use of our resources. Please visit our website at http:/gm.db.com to determine the target price of any stock. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. Stock t