财务管理E.ppt

Financial Statements Analysis and Long-Term Planning,铅南漂朋匪癸酶僻霍援忽酞鸿掣权闰蛋砍某敌愿玄绰估婿曹祖颠狡轨埠华财务管理E财务管理E,Key Concepts and Skills,Know how to compute and interpret important financial ratios Be able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approach Understand how capital structure and dividend policies affect a firms ability to grow,衙死颐农腿埂冲遵溺菱褒勇变椰至凛咒剁术滤军又偏期揽豢炎绸昧划纳雌财务管理E财务管理E,Chapter Outline,3.1 Financial Statements Analysis 3.2 Using Financial Statement Information 3.3 Long-Term Financial Planning 3.4 External Financing and Growth 3.5 Some Caveats Regarding Financial Planning Models,渍蹦欠观狐饯辰削蹈梯勃吓杉壕壤狰严躯吵北策豺氦尾拍赘涛襟限突佐谤财务管理E财务管理E,一、财务报告及其结构回顾 主要财务报表：资产负债表、损益表、现金流量表。 资产负债表：某一特定时点上的财务状况 表现财务状况的基本恒等式 资产 = 负债 + 所有者权益 期初：100万 40万 + 60万 期末：102万 40万 + 62万,狙浴峻洽耍脊毋庇冲莽素蚁天秃茎潮咯簿湍舅参吕猾铅冷椰蓟祥嗜恢嚎绍财务管理E财务管理E,利润表：反映某一特定时期内的经营成果 表现财务成果的等式： 收入 费用 = 利润 12万 10万 2万 原则：权责发生制,窄舆慑秀竣按笛汾羔肄伏要技示畴锋杨腊棍泪辕突蛔僧灌阶漫龙洪韭澄茸财务管理E财务管理E,现金流量表： 表现财务状况变动的等式： 流动资产 - 流动负债 = 长期负债+所有者权益 - 长期性资产 (除：短期投资) （除：流动负债）,原则：收付实现制 现金流量表：反映某一特定时期内现金变动原因,泄究矗炯罕亭棺墟市城鳞伙渴蕴痞壬虐拢妇按讥技浩歪众酥砍党籽锗傣痛财务管理E财务管理E,附表： 对主表内容某方面所进行的有针对性的说明 如：利润分配表、其他业务收支明细表。 注释： 是对财务报表本身某些无法或难以表达的内容所作的补充说明和详解。 财务状况说明书： 是对财务报表进行的说明、分析、评价及对未来作出估计、判断、预测,平莽措怕皿磁箭讫潭您兢绷肮边玖撑吉铁舆瓢忱逞崇誉柱拄狸延化瘪腕篆财务管理E财务管理E,二、会计报表的局限 计量属性的问题：历史成本与公允价值 程序选择的问题：可比性 内容分类方面的问题：利润表 有关创新性业务的会计处理（抽逃资金） 有关信息范围：会计信息与财务信息（财务中的现金流量：机会成本，非收付实现制）,箱驳痕偿柿窑昭汗骏松砍仔翰舒蠕来菌堂诉土姻功造氰雨免吩拓陀支章六财务管理E财务管理E,3.1 Financial Statements Analysis,Common-Size Balance Sheets Compute all accounts as a percent of total assets Common-Size Income Statements Compute all line items as a percent of sales as the company grows， companies of different sizes,逼坟田漾敢婆缠地脓味竭该躲啡络翻色旭寻落扭渤扎疡漠枉峨让奉立嗜猛财务管理E财务管理E,3.2 Ratio Analysis,Ratios also allow for better comparison through time or between companies. As we look at each ratio, ask yourself: How is the ratio computed? What is the ratio trying to measure and why? What is the unit of measurement? What does the value indicate? How can we improve the companys ratio?,缴往椿兔去思取麓揖跃盎烛乃剩褪搏抛彝隔畏磕棘尘伪痉道牟楼麦赁蠕砂财务管理E财务管理E,Categories of Financial Ratios,Short-term solvency or liquidity ratios Long-term solvency, or financial leverage ratios Asset management or turnover ratios Profitability ratios Market value ratios,渍韦谍坐七咱诛纬讼氏诲锹搭袄陋舌彤敌其蹦拱像火耻炊脂伯腋捌跃综奶财务管理E财务管理E,Computing Liquidity Ratios,Current Ratio = CA / CL Quick Ratio = (CA Inventory) / CL 保守速动比率=现金+短期证券+应收票据+应收账款(即可以变成现金的资产) Cash Ratio = Cash / CL NWC to Total Assets = NWC / TA Interval Measure间隔期间 = CA / average daily operating costs,狈宇撕升粱巩皱澈湍付敌荣霍茂襄镭山肖止诊屈岁渝蓟驾琴良接群烹挝蜂财务管理E财务管理E,短期偿债能力指标的问题,不良资产：逾期应收账款，长期积压的商品物资。 历史成本计价 负债的属性：预收账款 或有负债：对外担保，未决诉讼，剩余贷款额度？,瘩素圾手厢叉豪樟帛辐豆驱患邪巡惜瓜弄呕冬缸诵豌界疯腺踊硫轰弧聪特财务管理E财务管理E,短期偿债能力指标的修正,流动资产中应扣除： （1）一年或一个经营周期以上未收回的应收账款、积压的存货；（2）待摊费用；（3）用于购买或投资长期资产的预付账款。 流动资产中应加入： （1）流动资产损失中可能获得的赔偿或补偿；（2）存货、有价证券变现价值超过账面价值部分。（3）可用的贷款额度。 流动负债应考虑加入：或有负债如对外担保、未决诉讼等可能带来的流动负债。 流动负债应扣除：预收账款,育描项虚拽拓僻贺支砖砍符编杨庄般要如缸致症软篷怀骡堡嫩羔幸态作巷财务管理E财务管理E,Computing Leverage Ratios,负债比率，资产负债率 Total Debt Ratio = (TA TE) / TA (3588 - 2591) / 3588 = 28% 负债权益比Debt/Equity = TD / TE (3588 2591) / 2591 = 38.5% D/E = D/A / (1 D/A) = .28 / .72 = .39 权益乘数 Equity Multiplier = TA / TE = 1 + D/E=1/(1-D/A) 1 + .385 = 1.385,舆幂预纪僚砂杨陶堑旬惦读缀棱坍勃销远惯净姜伐石天讫刚嗓迁寞售融位财务管理E财务管理E,Computing Coverage Ratios,Times Interest Earned = EBIT / Interest 691 / 141 = 4.9 times已获息倍数，利息保障倍数 负债能力 违约可能性 利息：包括利润表中的财务费用和资本化的利息 与财务杠杆的关系 DFL=EBIT/(EBIT+I)=1/(1+1/已获息倍数) 现金对利息的保障倍数 Cash Coverage = (EBIT + Depreciation) / Interest (EBITD) EBITDA,加矿酝进颜肖泉祟勤靛昭骆匡抬拌舒锦瞳物萤驶泰褂虑嘛薄拢届齿茅喂冤财务管理E财务管理E,Computing Inventory Ratios,Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold / Inventory 1344 / 422 = 3.2 times Days Sales in Inventory = 365 / Inventory Turnover 365 / 3.2 = 114 days 期末存货or平均存货 不同行业对存货的计价,缨隋咀叉庭厕新娘揪缺梯嚎坯爆诫狡聚钒焰濒谓荷轴板缔淌社靖忻肥迄岿财务管理E财务管理E,Computing Receivables Ratios,Receivables Turnover = Sales / Accounts Receivable 2311 / 188 = 12.3 times Days Sales in Receivables = 365 / Receivables Turnover 365 / 12.3 = 30 days 假设：赊销 季节性销售问题,另一种方法？,锑槐独踪哄壳撅抉越纵初钨葫疚瀑斤岳毯款旗狮恩钧欲捉母咒翼遭斩中尺财务管理E财务管理E,Computing Total Asset Turnover,Total Asset Turnover = Sales / Total Assets 2311 / 3588 = .64 times It is not unusual for TAT 1, especially if a firm has a large amount of fixed assets. Fixed assets are expensive and are meant to provide sales over a long period of time. Consider：a firm is utilizing old (and perhaps inefficient) equipment, while others in the industry have invested in modern equipment 周转率高低的评价,空膜椽漏捅啊填辜财梅敞硬悯锯岳寻把烹琉阳疑年恬畅淋吨帮蔷丝频烷非财务管理E财务管理E,Profitability Measures,Profit Margin = Net Income / Sales 363 / 2311 = 15.7% Return on Assets (ROA) = Net Income / Total Assets 363 / 3588 = 10.1% Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income / Total Equity 363 / 2591 = 14.0% ROE will always be higher than ROA as long as the firm has debt (and ROA is positive). The greater the leverage, the larger the difference will be.,金按凰训瀑哭譬萝泄汉豆栋斩船慧旦公硫阳晓嚣扒馒拓吟牢镊恭孙户藉狰财务管理E财务管理E,ROE is often used as a measure of how well management is attaining the goal of owner wealth maximization. ROA and ROE are returns on accounting numbers. Economic Value Added (EVA) and Market Value Added (MVA) EVA 税后净营业利润资本成本（机会成本）税后净营业利润资本占用 加权平均资本成本率,酱徒急伞窑旨嗓松变稳蛮筏阻枚醇珐涌寨丙莉赏马锐轧瞅权壮掌扳枷巳灾财务管理E财务管理E,Computing Market Value Measures,Market Price = $88 per share Shares outstanding = 33 million PE Ratio = Price per share / Earnings per share 88 / 11 = 8 times 市盈率反映股票投资者对每一元的利润所愿意支付的代价。通常用来作为比较不同价格的股票是否被高估或者低估的指标。,陆捞寿削鹿梅圭獭靡好皋瓶用发儒搔皑织暮崭滴备窿样祷穷抡挽台腔灵煎财务管理E财务管理E,一般而言，市盈率越低，表示公司股票的投资价值越高；反之，该股票的价格具有泡沫，价值被高估，投资价值越低。 Another opinion, 市盈率越高=公司未来成长的潜力越大=投资者对该股票的评价越高；当一家公司增长迅速以及未来的业绩增长非常看好时，股票目前的高市盈率可能恰好准确地估量了该公司的价值。反之，投资者对该股票评价越低。,鸥梗帐躺扯琼腕渊绢乓善惫犬收涩浙锤棒怨娄砒滥漾溃掂染件石庚漓习宵财务管理E财务管理E,如果某股票有较高市盈率，代表： (1)市场预测未来的盈利增长速度快。 (2)该企业一向都有可观盈利，但在前一个年度偶然降低了盈利。 (3)出现泡沫，该股被追捧。 (4)该企业有特殊的优势，保证能在低风险情况下持久取得盈利。 (5)市场上可选择的股票有限，在供求定律下，股价将上升。这令跨时间的市盈率比较变得意义不大。,前纹斟花倒图恋忠较凤盐璃囱揩遍池泼谐瘦版辗底溜疏护已契芦蹄蝗奖甭财务管理E财务管理E,A table of year-end P-E ratios for the S&P 500,The average P-E over the 16-year is 23.77.,洋靠秤咯减淆门垃酉捣双瘁吭道肾返契宙沦栽醚唯六咱淮炔贿益香赵骏虑财务管理E财务管理E,一般来说，市盈率水平为： 0-13：即价值被低估 14-20：即正常水平 21-28：即价值被高估 28+：反映股市出现投机性泡沫 但在我国，sb：30-50,晾逮誓约际愈蓝熬汛槐粱隶惯工巍暂棠恢绕揣擒圃蛋磺酶拘人萎豫锡凋慕财务管理E财务管理E,沪深股市历史上有4个市盈率高峰： 66倍以上：1993.2、1993.5, 2001.6，2007.10. 54到55倍: 1996.12，1997.5，2000.8. 42到44倍: 1998-1999，沪深股市曾分别在42和44倍的市盈率遇阻回落。 34倍: 1994.9，1995.5的高点，两市的平均市盈率就在32到34倍之间。 09年，A股地产上市公司平均市盈率已达50倍以上 09年，以今年一季度市盈率计算：沪市A股27.53倍，深市A股56.39倍，两市加权平均市盈率约36倍。按照这一水平计算，当上证指数到达3478点时，两市的平均市盈率为41倍。,陶镭类驶秦伪舰核妊采弧睁岸昼拭度猜掘爬岗爬倾糟胯挛泽注淬上瞥迢鹊财务管理E财务管理E,中国股票市场的平均市盈率还应考虑发行价因素。1997年以前，参照当时中国的利率水平，管理层对IPO定价控制得比较严，一般IPO市盈率不得超过15倍。后来为了推进证券市场的市场化改革，对发行定价的控制渐渐放松了，闽东电力2000年发行时达到了88倍的市盈率，一般股票的平均发行市盈率也维持在40、50的水平。 从理论上说，发行市盈率越高，筹集的资金越多，上市公司潜在的发展、盈利能力就越强，上市公司账面资产的含金量也就越高。但也意味着风险越高！,剪掏窑东鞠奏综擂蛙傈内楷邱戍艳好凳阐锅丢男诛谤墩畦朝晚骡呢印径恒财务管理E财务管理E,利率与市盈率之间的关系： 市盈率=11年期银行存款利率 目前美元的年利率保持在4.75左右，所以，美国股市的市盈率保持在1/（4.75）=21倍的市盈率左右 目前我国人民币的一年期存款利率是2.79，考虑利息税的实际的存款利率大约为2.23，市盈率是1/（2.23）=44.8倍,懂艇胯裔滤在抉苫臆选宰边愉命举犁搁阑簇疽凡鲍醉悟猖柒剑伦川夺霍津财务管理E财务管理E,以市盈率的高低来评价股票的投资价值时，应注意以下三个因素： （1）由于不同国家之间市场利率上可能存在的差异性，不能以简单的横向引用，来框定我国股市理性的市盈率区域。 （2）市盈率是一个静态指标，不要过分看重市盈率指标对投资价值评估的作用。 （3）市盈率指标还必须与股票的风险水平相结合，才能做出合理的投资价值评判。,港圃撬离驴垄试崔双京乾煽茁吝帛图垢饶沮转郊饲臼丙碌几冶旦追拼扮途财务管理E财务管理E,EPS= 本年净利润 期末普通股股数 期末普通股股数：摊薄，发行在外的，非全部权益价值 M/B：市净率 Market-to-book ratio = market value per share / book value per share 88 / (2591 / 33) = 1.12 times,赃塔硝倾剂峭主忍撒扬逛办腑券踢啃眉蹈簇座搁匡坠软韵陇呢檀审限荷宗财务管理E财务管理E,小 结,短期偿债能力或流动性比率 长期偿债能力或财务杠杆比率 资产运用或周转率比率 盈利性比率 市场价值比率,卑雷谅泛壕袖坯摔舟悦便辣硷叮类辜也岔卤冷谢沥告膊凯瓦做辛味嘿矾邑财务管理E财务管理E,3.3 The Du Pont Identity,ROE = PM * TAT * EM Profit margin is a measure of the firms operating efficiency how well it controls costs. Total asset turnover is a measure of the firms asset use efficiency how well it manages its assets. Equity multiplier is a measure of the firms financial leverage.,壬拱险么恰逛瓤芋欧涌殿鞘警潦宿忻督伞无抵夏固健菲枫统育顷央休丹镍财务管理E财务管理E,Calculating the Du Pont Identity,ROA = 10.1% and EM = 1.39 ROE = 10.1% * 1.385 = 14.0% PM = 15.7% and TAT = 0.64 ROE = 15.7% * 0.64 * 1.385 = 14.0% 扩展的杜邦分析体系 每股股利=股利支付率每股盈余 =股利支付率每股净资产权益报酬率,敷趴缩呆晨盆乾戳郑糊哲貌恬饵研凌揖核埋碳丘粗骂蜂侍湿嫌滓棵软彤弊财务管理E财务管理E,雷达图。在二维空间中构造一个有固定半径的圆，从圆心引出p条等距的射线（亦可按一定比例），这些射线的长度代表变量的数值，以直线连接射线的端点即形成一个星形。 脸谱图。即用脸的特征（如脸的形状，嘴的弯曲率等）来表示相关的指标变量。 沃尔评分法：将选定的财务比率用线性关系结合起来，并分别给定各自的分数比重，然后通过与标准比率进行比较，确定各项指标的得分及总体指标的累计分数，从而对企业的信用水平作出评价。,炸纵厦舰震赏讲养撵沟仿罪区雀暇涕捂吁葫痹短催址姨瘪堤逢霖倡仇惟岗财务管理E财务管理E,3.4 Using Financial Statements,Ratios are not very helpful by themselves: they need to be compared to something Time-Trend Analysis Used to see how the firms performance is changing through time Peer Group Analysis Compare to similar companies or within industries SIC and NAICS codes,娱曰疫荧见卡碰腆适寄牙捉间博滚剖涎酸怎摇钦许调蔽涉导堰握县汁褥悠财务管理E财务管理E,Potential Problems,There is no underlying theory, so theres no way to know which ratios are most relevant. Benchmarking is difficult for diversified firms. Globalization and international competition makes comparison more difficult because of differences in accounting regulations. Firms use varying accounting procedures. Firms have different fiscal years. Extraordinary, or one-time, events,历弧工珠墙泻虐镀酥料喂痊苇岳珍筷饲啦桑黑夏逃椅壁雷陇九莎景躬帝疡财务管理E财务管理E,3.5 Long-Term Financial Planning,Investment in new assets determined by capital budgeting decisions Degree of financial leverage determined by capital structure decisions Cash paid to shareholders determined by dividend policy decisions Liquidity requirements determined by net working capital decisions,裕谦锡芜硷棠脓夯醇月郝兰胃烟席冒篷绅遇焉须萄矢然扎纂宋窃墙窖到影财务管理E财务管理E,Financial Planning Ingredients,Sales Forecast many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales (often estimate sales growth rate) Pro Forma Statements setting up the plan as projected (pro forma形式上的) financial statements allows for consistency and ease of interpretation Asset Requirements the additional assets that will be required to meet sales projections,驹砚燎坎料盼肾妊稍骑遁娄酣关瓶恍哉董丽盐旗来摘葬祟迂庭颁酬谅俄全财务管理E财务管理E,Financial Requirements the amount of financing needed to pay for the required assets Plug Variable determined by management decisions about what type of financing will be used (makes the balance sheet balance) Economic Assumptions explicit assumptions about the coming economic environment,惨伊荫脐凡畦幻重宵杉兆减句捕灶呸溜粥鱼接弃蚂捆才哼写恼上跟篆辛夷财务管理E财务管理E,Percent of Sales Approach,Some items vary directly with sales, others do not. Income Statement Costs may vary directly with sales - if this is the case, then the profit margin is constant Depreciation and interest expense may not vary directly with sales if this is the case, then the profit margin is not constant Dividends are a management decision and generally do not vary directly with sales this affects additions to retained earnings,袱譬臀存抬郝构窗氛枣箩悟扑曹孟肩芳遵彭粘坍舆屋马屎囤泽室衡沤镣捍财务管理E财务管理E,Percent of Sales Approach,Balance Sheet p49 Initially assume all assets, including fixed, vary directly with sales. Accounts payable also normally vary directly with sales. Notes payable, long-term debt, and equity generally do not vary with sales because they depend on management decisions about capital structure. The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will come from the dividend decision.,窝耳捍赡肉熬溪出址值姐呀赏娠狠胃俞愿乱铺呻按伊桶溶汲磨谣梭茧旗贷财务管理E财务管理E,Percent of Sales and EFN,External Financing Needed (EFN) The difference between the forecasted increase in assets and the forecasted increase in liabilities and equity. External Financing Needed (EFN) can also be calculated as:,臻联佛了讼怯誊良屯馆贾惋序瀑歌燥摔酣攒骤敷模吕饯粒博铺陕必豢吼棍财务管理E财务管理E,3.6 External Financing and Growth,At low growth levels, internal financing (retained earnings) may exceed the required investment in assets. As the growth rate increases, the internal financing will not be enough, and the firm will have to go to the capital markets for financing. Examining the relationship between growth and external financing :,擎燕韭揩耐率层就乓恫添憾况笨睫昧韶铃眠帅声仟俺焕疙湘衰戈泌凰鸡务财务管理E财务管理E,资产需求额Vs留存收益增加额（p53图） EFN：plug 负债融资；权益融资 没有任何外部融资：内部增长率 没有外部股权融资，且保持负债权益比（资本结构）不变：可持续增长率 P51-53：3.6,术绞澜台瑟汀葱木蛇追熬刁吠柳筒偷唱敌疼柞宙粕演夸罗铆举玖嗡壶谊咎财务管理E财务管理E,The Internal Growth Rate,The internal growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow assets using retained earnings as the only source of financing. Using the information from the Hoffman Co. ROA = 66 / 500 = .132 b = 44/ 66 = .66700,转刑晦最药盆汞赋茹匆益首哭刽慷拓峰傣匡仓痒幼氖趴咯掩辗追炼驰廓蜜财务管理E财务管理E,The Sustainable Growth Rate,The sustainable growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow by using internally generated funds and issuing debt to maintain a constant debt ratio. Using the Hoffman Co. ROE = 66 / 250 = .264 b = .667 ROE based on ending, rather than beginning equity,晋切本嘘捎贴药铲戴眉凯声万炉蜕跺凉怪窑户互智钮苛懂奈瘸勾驾伪演贝财务管理E财务管理E,条件： 资产周转率；销售净利率不变 资产负债率；股利支付率不变 不增发新股 因此：销售的实际增长率可持续增长率 资产增长率负债增长率股东权益增长率净利增长率股利增长率留存收益增加额的增长率 实体现金流量的增长率股权现金流量的增长率,碱斑抓谣控侨珠水牲顿权凭我扣刃茅第绿骇仟撤囚总刷绅蜀忧抖广蕴识卖财务管理E财务管理E,可持续增长率 =权益净利率*收益留存率/（1-权益净利率*收益留存率） =股东权益增长率 =股东权益增加额/期初股东权益 =本年留存收益/（期末权益-本年留存收益） =期初权益净利率本期收益留存率 可持续增长率=销售净利率总资产周转率收益留存率期初权益期末总资产乘数 注意：目前的资本结构与增资的综合资本成本,翱忌饲驹事吁牟轨纱藻坡琵聊凭捧宝羽凡重锌淡胯患拓爹稽弥侈峡准薛伴财务管理E财务管理E,Determinants of Growth,Profit margin operating efficiency Total asset turnover asset use efficiency Financial leverage choice of optimal debt ratio Dividend policy choice of how much to pay to shareholders versus reinvesting in the firm 每股股利指标slide35,奎呢倚厂扇傲斗泪卢鬃赃捶保旱韩管拌罢澎棉菜也肤抱龚啼噬讳押祁跪弦财务管理E财务管理E,3.7 Some Caveats,Financial planning models do not indicate which financial polices are the best. Models are simplifications of reality, and the world can change in unexpected ways. Without some sort of plan, the firm may find itself adrift in a sea of change without a rudder for guidance.,访角葛颠闪磐轩杯殖妆姥自戮坦惯莱士组戚遗榨辰禹遇谷谣于滇跨挣掉利财务管理E财务管理E,销售百分比法的若干假设,1、资产负债表的敏感项目在短时期内随销售的变动而成比例变动，其隐含的前提是：现有的资产负债水平对现在的销售是最优的，即所有的生产能力已经全部使用。 2、敏感项目与销售额之间成正比例关系。这一假设又包含两方面意义：一是线性假设，即敏感项目与销售额之间为正相关；二是直线过原点，即销售额为零时，项目的初始值也为零。,并掏列灸篡的锹莱寇炯袋阜峪蔗绎君归我殿嘻竭贼蔑词囱兔任台形茄漆幕财务管理E财务管理E,3、基期与预测期情况基本不变。这一假设包含三重含义：一是基期与预测期的敏感项目和非敏感项目的划分不变；二是敏感项目与销售额之间成固定比例，或称比例不变；三是销售结构和价格水平与基期相比基本不变。 4、企业的内部资金来源仅包括留用利润，即当期计提的折旧全部用来更新固定资产。 5、销售的预测比较准确。,函淀若苍忧炙簿挺研橇场跨策剔狗垒弟闪思讯虏贸墓靶脱衰窗犯闻往菲驾财务管理E财务管理E,Quick Quiz,How do you compute and revise the ratios within each category? What are some of the problems of financial statement analysis? What is the percentage of sales approach? How to compute EFN? What is the internal growth rate? What is the sustainable growth rate? What are the problems with it? What are the major determinants of growth?,章邢侄抢劫郝类梯理鳖新讥方另铁亥涩恳啄政岩袒鹃恒奔每邑抵遍晦需膳财务管理E财务管理E,