BMI China Telecommunications Report Q1 2012.pdf
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1、Q1 2012 telecommunications RepoRt issn 1748-4472 published by Business monitor international ltd. cHina INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London, EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2011 Business Monitor I
2、nternational. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means gra
3、phic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources belie
4、ved to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omis
5、sions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. CHINA TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPORT Q1 2012 INCLUDES 5-YEA
6、R FORECASTS TO 2016 Part of BMIs Industry Survey Googles threats to quit China after accusing the government of hacking may set a precedent over the future actions of other foreign firms. Opportunities ? Appeal among younger segments of the population regarding online content, particularly in relati
7、on to multimedia services such as gaming, video and music. ? Accessibility to the internet through universities, internet cafs and schools has meant that demand for online content continues to thrive. ? Growth of broadband sector likely to lead to expansion contracts for manufacturers such as Alcate
8、l Shanghai Bell and Huawei Technologies. ? Growing number of regional cable operators supplied with broadband licences leading to lower tariffs. ? First WiMAX services and demand for mobile broadband services are rising rapidly, which will aid growth of the broadband sector. Threats ? The greater so
9、phistication and ownership of mobile services represents a threat to broadband, with the possibility of mobile broadband services becoming more widely accepted rather than fixed broadband. ? High international gateway and backbone network fees charged to cable operators by fixed-line operators could
10、 stifle growth in the broadband market. ? Fixed-line and broadband sectors remain dominated by China Telecom, offering few options for customers. China Telecommunications Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 China Mobile Market SWOT Strengths ? The size of the mobile market; Chin
11、a Mobile is the worlds largest operator in terms of subscriber numbers. ? Strength of domestic manufacturers Huawei Technologies and ZTE grows, and both firms are likely to continue winning major equipment contracts. ? 3G equipment spending following licence awards will fuel the telecoms capex for C
12、hina. ? Government determination to invest in Chinas telecoms industry ensuring that it becomes innovative. ? Demand for mobile broadband will aid growth of 3G subscribers. Weaknesses ? Many rural areas have neither fixed-line nor mobile telephony services available. ? Many local handset manufacture
13、rs (Soutec, Eastcom and Kejian) are beginning to suffer as Nokia, Motorola and Samsung have all picked up in handset sales due to better distribution. ? Handset sales in general are being impacted as customers refrain from upgrading. ? Economic downturn in the export-reliant China has meant that mig
14、rant workers have relinquished their services as they leave for their hometowns; local, regional-based operators have reported a drop in mobile revenues. ? Increasing rural penetration would have a negative effect on ARPU levels. Opportunities ? Significant room for growth in the Chinese 3G market.
15、The number of subscribers accounted for about 11% of the entire mobile market. ? Growth in usage of value-added services (VAS) should translate to 3G success. ? Reduced tariffs for long-distance and international calls for mobile from January 2010 will contribute to the popularity of mobile above th
16、at of fixed line. ? LTE trials are under way, although the government said it will refrain from providing licences until operators recouped their investments for 3G. Threats ? Several US equipment vendors expecting to win 3G contracts could miss out on TD- SCDMA infrastructure deals, with carriers m
17、ore likely to award contracts to local companies or Western companies in joint ventures (JVs) with local companies. ? Multinational handset manufacturers are facing more opposition from the likes of Huawei Technologies, ZTE, Ningbo Bird and TCL. China Telecommunications Report Q1 2012 Business Monit
18、or International Ltd Page 10 China Political SWOT Strengths ? The Communist Party of China, which has governed for 60 years, remains secure in its position as the sole political party in China. ? Chinas expanding economy is gradually giving it greater clout in international affairs, which will allow
19、 it to build politically important ties, especially with the developing world. Weaknesses ? As with any other one-party state, Chinas political system is inherently unstable and unable to respond to the wider changes taking place in society. Provincial governments often fail to enforce central gover
20、nment directives. ? Although bilateral ties have warmed since the election of Ma Ying-jeou as Taiwanese president in March 2008, Chinas relationship with Taiwan remains problematic, with Beijing refusing to rule out the threat of force in the event of a declaration of independence by Taiwan. Opportu
21、nities ? China is actively expanding its political and economic ties with major emerging markets such as Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. ? A new generation of leaders (the so-called fifth generation) is being prepared to take power in 2012-2013. This should ensure the continuation of refo
22、rm and modernisation. Threats ? Growing corruption, widening inequalities, increasing rural poverty and environmental degradation have led to an increase in social unrest in recent years. ? The Communist Party is facing increasing factional rifts based on ideology and regionalism. While greater poli
23、tical debate would be welcomed by many, internal regime schisms could prove politically destabilising. ? China faces major challenges in ensuring that separatism in ethnically distinct regions such as Tibet and Xinjiang is kept at bay. China Telecommunications Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor Interna
24、tional Ltd Page 11 China Economic SWOT Strengths ? China is the fastest-growing major economy in the world, and this has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the past generation. ? China has a massive trade surplus and its huge foreign exchange reserves serve as a major cushion
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