2022年全球医疗趋势报告.docx

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1、2022年全球医疗趋势报告AON发布了“2022年全球医疗趋势报告”。报告发布时，新冠大流行已经持续影响世界近两年，各种经济放缓直接影响了企业赞助医疗计划。大约60%的受访国家报告2020/2021年的水平低于或远低于2019年大流行前一年。尽管新冠对延期治疗和长期医疗保健的影响仍存在相当大的不确定性，但大多数国家报告的计划水平正在恢复。预计在2021年最后一个季度或2022年初会正常化。尽管发生了大流行，并且由于其潜在的长期影响而加剧，但企业赞助的医疗计划仍然非常普遍，其中保险是最常见且不断增长的融资方式。此外，这些医疗计划提供的条款范围继续扩大，而大多数本地顶级保险公司直接或通过第三方提供

2、者将其保障范围扩大到包括远程医疗服务和/或心理健康支持。由于通货膨胀，除北美、中东和非洲外，所有地区医疗都将出现增长，特别是拉丁美洲和加勒比地区。尽管主要由巴西和墨西哥推动拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的医疗增长，但中东和非洲仍将是平均医疗增长最高的地区。对于欧洲和亚太地区，根据对总体地区通货膨胀情况的预测，预计2022年医疗趋势将保持稳定，其水平与2021年的预期水平相似。最后，与国内总体通货膨胀小幅上升相反，北美地区报告2022年医疗小幅下降。加拿大和美国的预测相对于2021年报告的预测均呈下降趋势。IntroductionAonisp1.easedtopresenttheresu1.tsofits

3、2022surveyofaverageMedica1.TrendRatesfromcountriesaroundthewor1.d.Thesurveywasconductedamong108Aonofficesthatbroker,administer,orotherwiseadviseonemp1.oyer-sponsoredmedica1.p1.ansineachofthecountriescoveredinthisreport.Eachofficerepresentsonespecificcountry.Thesurveyresponsesref1.ectthemedica1.trend

4、expectationsoftheAonprofessiona1.sbasedontheirinteractionswithc1.ientsandcarriersrepresentedintheportfo1.ioofthefirmsmedica1.p1.anbusinessineachcountry.Thetrendratespresentedinthisreportdonotinc1.udeanya1.1.owancesforpotentia1.emp1.oyercountermeasuressuchascost-containmentp1.anamendmentsorthepotenti

5、a1.impactofanyattendantemp1.oyer/brokernegotiationswithcarriers.Apanies: Budgetpremiumcostsformedica1.p1.anrenewa1.s Understandthefactorsdrivingmedica1.costincreases Devisewe1.1.nessandcost-containmentinitiativestorespondtothecha1.1.engesThetrendratefiguresshowninthisreportrepresentthepercentageincr

6、easesinmedica1.p1.an(insuredandse1.f-insured)unitcoststhatareanticipatedtobetechnica1.1.yrequiredtoaddressprojectedpriceinf1.ation,techno1.ogyadvancesinthemedica1.fie1.d,p1.anuti1.izationpatterns,andcostshiftingfromsocia1.programsineachcoveredcountry.Careshou1.dbetakenininterpretingtheinformationpre

7、sentedhere.TheMedica1.TrerdRatesprovidedarenotmeanttorepresentanoverviewofeachcountry,shea1.thcarecostsasawho1.e.Neitheraretheynecessari1.yindicativeofthehea1.thcaresituationofeachcountry,spopu1.ationovera1.1.Thissurveycoverssevera1.separatethemes: EstimatedMedica1.TrendRatesfor2022 Riskfactorsthata

8、redrivingmedica1.costinf1.ation Principa1.coste1.ementsinmedica1.c1.aims We1.1.nessandhea1.thpromotioninitiativesbeingundertakenbyemp1.oyerstodea1.withspira1.ingmedica1.costincreasetrends Themostcommon(moda1.)emp1.oyerpracticesineachcoveredcountryaroundmedica1.p1.anpreva1.ence,design,funding,andadmi

9、nistration Qua1.itativeresponsestoprovidegreatercontexttomedica1.p1.ansg1.oba1.1.yThisreporta1.soprovidesinformationonthegrowingpracticeofrequiringemp1.oyeecostsharinginmedica1.p1.ancosts.Thereportsummarizesthemosttypica1.(moda1.)practicesineachcoveredcountryinthisregardemp1.oyeesharinginmedica1.pre

10、miumcosts,orinmedica1.c1.aimout1.ays.Asareference,wehavea1.soinc1.udedtheprojectedgenera1.inf1.ationratesfor2022pub1.ishedbytheInternationa1.MonetaryFundOMF)thathavebeenadoptedasaproxyfortheexpecteddomesticretai1.inf1.ation1.eve1.ineachcountryfor2022.Thetrendratefigures,riskfactors,andcoste1.ementsi

11、nthisreportre1.atetoemp1.oyer-sponsoredp1.ansandtheirparticipantswithaggregatepremiums,orpremiumequiva1.ent,managedbyAonofoverUSD180bi1.1.ion.Theg1.oba1.andregiona1.Medica1.TrendRateaveragesref1.ectthefo1.1.owingtechnica1.procedures: Aweightingprocessbasedoneachcoutry,saverageprivatehea1.thcareinsur

12、anceexpenditureperpersonwitharbitraryadjustmentsforsomecountriesinordertopreventoverorunderweighting. AgeometricaveragingmechanismDuetothehyperinf1.ationenvironmentprevai1.inginArgentina,1.ebanon,Venezue1.aandZimbabwe,wehave1.eftthesecountriesoutoftheregiona1.andg1.oba1.Medica1.TrendRateaveragingmec

13、hanismfor2022.Aonintendstoissueannua1.surveyupdatesinthefuture.Weexpectthatastheg1.oba1.demandformedica1.p1.anbenefitsextendstomorecountries,thenumberofparticipatingcountriesinourpub1.ishedreportswi1.1.increaseovertime.Wehopeyouwi1.1.findthisreportusefu1.Weanyfeedbackyoumaywishtoprovide.p,IMFdidmtpu

14、b1.ishprojectionsongenera，inf1.ationfofArgent100,Bermudaand1.ebanon.FdfBermudawehoveusedthemostrecentdomesticretai1.inf1.ationfigureosthebestavaiiabieproxy.FofArgentinaand1.ebanonrwededdednottoreportagenera1.inf1.ationfigureduetothetockofre1.tabieproxies.KeyHigh1.ightsG1.oba1.OverviewAtthetimeofpub1

15、icationofthisreport,thewor1.dhasbeensubmergedintheCOVID-19pandemicfora1.mosttwoyears,withthevariouseconomics1.owdownsdirect1.yimpactingemp1.oyer-sponsoredmedica1.p1.ans.Around60%ofcountriessurveyedreported2020/2021p1.anuti1.ization1.eve1.seither1.owerormuch1.owerthanthe1.eve1.sobservedduring2019Pre

16、PandemiCyear.Anda1.thoughthereissti1.1.afairamountofuncertaintyregardingCOVID-19,simpactondeferredtreatmentsand1.ong-termhea1.thcare,mostcountriesarereportingp1.anuti1.izationgradua1.1.yreturningtonorma1.1.eve1.s(orpre-pandemic1.eve1.s),withnorma1.izationexpectedtooccur,formany,during1.astquarterof

17、2021orear1.y2022.Despitethepandemic,anda1.soexacerbatedbyitspotentia1.1.ong-termeffects,emp1.oyersponsoredmedica1.p1.answi1.1.continuetobehigh1.ypreva1.ent,withinsuranceasthemostcommon,andgrowing,financingapproach.Furthermore,thescopeoftheprovisionsofferedbythesemedica1.p1.anscontinuestoexpand(e.g.c

18、overingnewprocedures,fewerexc1.usionsfromp1.ancoverage,andmore1.enientp1.anparticipationrequirements),whi1.ethemajorityoftop1.oca1.insurersexpandtheiroffertoinc1.udete1.ehea1.thservicesand/ormenta1.hea1.thsupport,eitherdirect1.yorthroughthirdpartyproviders.Atag1.oba1.1.eve1.,weareexpectingas1.ight1.

19、yhigheraverageMedica1.TrendRatein2022re1.ativeto2021rfo1.1.owingtheexpectedg1.oba1.increaseingenera1.inf1.ation.WiththeexceptionofNorthAmericaandMidd1.eEast&Africa,theincreasewi1.1.beechoedthrougha1.1.theregions,particu1.ar1.yinthe1.atinAmericanandCaribbeanregion,wherenettrendIsa1.soexpectedtoinease

20、However,anddespitetheanticipatedincreaseintheMedica1.TrendRateinthe1.atinAmericanandCaribbeanregion,most1.ydrivenbyBrazi1.andMexico,theMidd1.eEast&Africawi1.1.remaintheregionwiththehighestaverageMedica1.TrendRate.ForEuropeandAsia-Pacificregionsthe2022Medica1.TrendRateisexpectedtoremainstab1.e,fo1.1

21、owingtheprojectionsforthegenera1.domesticinf1.ation,with1.eve1.ssimi1.artothoseanticipatedfor2021.Fina1.1.y,andcontrarytothesma1.1.increaseinthedomesticgenera1.inf1.ation.NorthAmericareportedasma1.1.decreaseinthe2022Medica1.TrendRate,withbothCanadaandtheUSprojectingadownwardnettrendre1.ativeto2021r

22、eportedprojections.7.4%Theg1.oba1.averageMedica1.TYendRatefor2；一；s7,1(7.2%加2021)F1.exib1.eBenefitsP1.ansnowatop3g1.oba1.costmitigationinitiativetocontro1.medica1.p1.anscostsPoorStressManafcmcntandPhysica1.Inactivitygainingre1.evanceonthetop3riskfactorsdrivingfutureadversemedica1.costsENT/1.ungDisord

23、erZRespiTatorygrowingasatopmedica1.conditionsurpassingDiabetesindrivingadversemedica1.c1.aimsexperience5.0%We1.1.nessinitiativescontinue,so1.idifyingpositionasthemaincostmitigationmeasure(e.g.increaseinPhysica1.ActivityandHeaithyWeightandBackCareintervent1.ons)Medica1.TrendRatescontinuetogrowoveri.；

24、withaverageNetMedica1.TrendRatebeing5.0%in2022(sameasin202i)Exhibit1:Doub1.e-digitmarginsbetween2022Medica1.TrendRatesanddomesticinf1.ation1.eve1.swerefoundinthefo1.1.owingcountries:KazakhstanMexicoSSa1.vador一NicaraguaC.qPakistanEgyptQSaUdiArabiaGThai1.and9QIvoryCoastMa1.aysiaZambiaThe2022averageg1.

25、oba1.nomina1.(gross)Medica1.TrendRateisprojectedtobehigherthanthecorresponding2021reportedprojection:For2022,theg1.oba1.averageMedka1.TrendRatewasprojectedtobe7.4%andtheg1.oba1.averagegenera1.inf1.ationratetobe2.4%,In2021,theg1.oba1.averageMedica1.TrendRatewasprojectedtobe7.2%andtheg1.oba1.averagege

26、nera1.inf1.ationratetobe2.2%2Furthermore,andfor2022,thegapbetweentheaverageg1.oba1.nomina1.Medica1.TrendRateandtheg1.oba1.averagegenera1.inf1.ationrateisexpectedtoremainthesame,at5.0%,simi1.artothereportedfor2021.2022protectedinf1.ationfanMFWor1.dEconorotcOuUookDatabaSeApri1.2021z2021projectedinf1.a

27、tionfromIMFWor1.dEconomicOut1.ookDatabaseApri1.2020Asia-Pacific(APAC)7.0%/5.1%7.0%/4.4%Regiona1.AverageCrossMedica1.TrendRate202218.2%2021I8.0%Regiona1.AverageNetMedice1.TrendRate202215.8%2021I5.5%2022Annua1.Medica1.Gross%Net%vs.2021Annua1.Medica1.Crots%/Net%5.6%/37%HongKong5.3%/2.8%Austra1.iaInAust

28、ra1.ia,COV1.D-19didnothaveanotab1.edetrimenta1.impactontheovera1.1.hea1.thcaresystem.Theback1.ogofcance1.1.ede1.ectivesurgeriesduetostringent1.ockdownsandthede1.ayingofhea1.thscreeningisexpectedtogenerateafuturesurgeofpatientsresu1.tinginanegativeimpactonhea1.thcarecosts.This,combinedwithanageingpop

29、u1.ationandincreasingratesofchronicdiseaseandhighcostofmedica1.devicesandadvancementsintechno1.ogy(costofprosthesesarearound30%higherthanNZ)hasresu1.tedina3.2%projectedMedica1.Trendratefor2022rdespitethes1.ight1.y1.owergenera1.inf1.ationprojectionsbytheIMF.ChinaInChina,theCOVID-19pandemichassignific

30、ant1.yreducedovera1.1.p1.anuti1.ization1.eve1.s,name1.youtpatientcare.However,wehaveseenbehaviorquick1.ynorma1.ize,atapointthat,bytheendof2020c1.aimswerereportingsimi1.artopre-pandemic1.eve1.s,whichcontinuedtowards2021,withtheexceptionofon1.ineconsu1.tations(te1.ehea1.th)whichgradua1.1.ycontinuestos

31、pike.Therefore,anddespitethes1.ightreductionontheprojectedgenera1.inf1.ation,weexpectedMedica1.TrendRatetocontinuetobea1.ignedwithwhatwasobservedduringpre-COVIDyears.Hence,for2022,WeanticipateaMedica1.TrendRateata7%1.eve1.HongKongDespitethe1.oweranticipatedgenera1.inf1.ation,wehaveseenmedica1.provid

32、ersandc1.inicsinHongKongincreasingtheirpricestoagreaterdegree.Furthermore,wearestartingtoobserveuti1.ization1.eve1.sriseabovethosePre-PandemiGmostiyasaresu1.tofhigherfreedomofmovementandasaconsequenceofde1.ayede1.ectiveprocedures.However,consideringwesti1.1.expectafairamountofvo1.ati1.ityonuti1.izat

33、ion1.eve1.sduring2022rweanticipatea5.6%Medica1.TrendRate,be1.owpre-pandemic1.eve1.s.97.0%/6.2%7.0%/6.5%13.0%/ASingaPOe9.0%/5.4%31%/1.5%-2.5%/0.7%Austra1.iaIndiaInIndia,theCOVID-19pandemichasovershadowedhea1.thcarec1.aimsformostof2020/2021.ThecostoftreatmenthasincreasedduetonewCOVID-19securitymeasure

34、s,suchastheextensiveuseofPRE,testingandmitigationprotoco1.sforinpatientadmissions,aswe1.1.asduetothehigherdemandformedica1.services(mostfaci1.itiesstayeddevotedtoCOVIDtreatmentsaspergovernmentintervention).Furthermore,theadversehea1.thimpactofdeferredregu1.arscreeninganda1.ike1.ythirdwaveremainsabig

35、causeofconcern,name1.yconsideringthata1.argeportionofthepopu1.ationisnotyetvaccinated.Therefore,anddespiteseeingc1.aimsincidencesgradua1.1.ysett1.ingdown,weanticipate2022Medica1.TrendRatetoincreasetoa13%1.eve1.,higherthanprioryearsreportedtrend.SingaporeInSingapore,anddespitesomeuncertainty,wehavese

36、enc1.aimsspikebackupin2021withtheexpectationthattheywou1.deventua1.1.ynorma1.izeduring2022asaresu1.tofahighvaccinationrate(75%asofAugust2021)rwiththecountrymovingsteadi1.yfromapandemictoanendemicstatus.Furthermore,Wecontinuetoseeagrowinginterest,andanincreasedscopeofprovisions,re1.atedtowe1.1.nesspr

37、ograms,spearheadedbytheCOVID-19pandemicandsubsequentriseonmenta1.hea1.thandte1.emedicinec1.aims,which,togetherwiththeacce1.erationintechno1.ogyanddigita1.hea1.thusage,resu1.tsina7%anticipated2022Medica1.TrendRate1.eve1.,simi1.artotheonereportedfor2021.1.atinAmerica&Caribbean(1.AC)Mexico4.5%/1.9%5.5%

38、/23%-9Co1.ombiaRegiona1.AverageGrossMedica1.TrendRate2022110.6%2021I8.8%Regiona1.AverageNetMedica1.TrendRate202217.4%2021I6.4%Brazi1.DuetotheCOVID-19pandemic,Brazi1.hasexperiencedduring2020asignificantreductionintheuti1.izationofhea1.thservices,especia1.1.ydctorandemergencyroomvisits.However,anddesp

39、itethe1.owerdemand,costsofmedica1.servicescontinuedtoincreasebydoub1.edigits.Inthefirstha1.fof2021itwasobservedanincreaseinuti1.ization,bothinnumberandseverity,withe1.ectiveproceduresgradua1.1.ycomingbacktoprepandemic1.eve1.s.Furthermore,currencydepreciationagainstUSDinthepastyearhashadanupwardimpac

40、tonthecostofmedica1.equipmentandmedicines,whichoftenrepresents50%ofhospita1.izationcosts.Asaresu1.t,weareanticipatingaMedica1.TrendRatefor2022ata12.3%1.eve1.,increasingfrom10.6%asreportedfor2021.Co1.ombiaInCo1.ombia,wehaveassistedasignificantandgenera1.izedreductioninp1.anuti1.izationduring2020rname

41、1.yintheuseofoutpatientmedica1.services,contrastingwiththeincreaseduti1.izationofmenta1.hea1.thandte1.ehea1.thservices.Neverthe1.ess,sincethe1.astquarterof2020c1.aimsares1.ow1.y,andgradua1.1.y,returningtopre-pandemi1.eve1.s,withafu1.1.norma1.izationexpectedbytheendof2022.Thiswi1.1.partia1.1.yoffseta

42、nexpectedreductiononthegenera1.inf1.ation,1.eadingtoadownwardprojected2022Medica1.TrendRateof4.5%,asopposedto5.5%asreportedintheprioryear.MexicoInMexico,Wecontinuetoobservethecomebackofdeferredtreatmentsforconditionsnotdirect1.yre1.atedtoCOVID-19,andweexpectthistoIingerthrough2022.Additiona1.1.y,hos

43、pita1.shavebeenmodifyingtheirprotoco1.sforsafecareofon-COVID-19patients,whichwi1.1.continuetodrivemedica1.averagecostsupwards.Furthermore,Wearea1.soanticipating1.ongtermeffectsfromcomp1.icationsinPOSt-CoVIDpatients.Therefore,the2022Medica1.TrendRateisexpectedtoremaininthedoub1.edigits,projectedat16%

44、raboveanticipatedtrendsreportedinthepasttwoyears.2022Annua1.Medica1.Gross%Net%vs.2021Annua1.Medtca1.Cross%/Net%16.0%1Z9Q15.0%/12.2%PuertoRico92.2%/0.7%2.3%/1.7%8.5%/6.5%8.56.7%VPeruBrT1.12.3%/8310.6%/73%PeruInPeru,wehavegradua1.1.yseen2021uti1.izationnumberscomingbacktoPre-PandemiC1.eve1.s.Furthermo

45、re,increasingprescriptioncostsandcostoftreatmentsduetotheuseofnewtechno1.ogybyprivatehea1.thcareproviderscontinuetodrivemedica1.trend,keepingtheratesignificant1.yabovegenera1.inf1.ation.Fina1.1.y,WeanticipatethatCOVID-19treatmentsandDe1.tavariantwi1.1.continuetoputpressureonhospita1.servicesandrates

46、andthereforeanticipate2022Medica1.TrendRatetoremainthesameasthereportedfor2021.PuertoRicoPuertoRkohasbeenhistorica1.1.yimpactedbystrongsocioeconomiccrisisandnatura1.events(hurricaneandearthquakes)andmostrecent1.ytheg1.oba1.pandemic.WiththeCOVID-19pandemicWehaveobservedatypica1.uti1.izationbehaviorsa

47、saresu1.tofthestayathomeand1.ockdownsorders.However,1.ookingat2021uti1.ization,theexpectationisthatpatternswi1.1.endveryc1.osetothoseseenduring2019.Nonethe1.ess,Medica1.TrendRateisanticipatedtostayata1.ow1.eve1.,most1.yasaresu1.tofinsurancecarriersworkingwithmedica1.providerstokeepfees1.ow,reviewing

48、pharmacycontractsandencouragingtheuseofdiscounthospita1.sandnetworksfor1.aboratories,x-raysandpharmacies.Exhibit21:We1.1.nessProgramsReportedasCommon1.yProvided(continued)DetectionCoachingVisionScreening70Hea1.thSpecia1.ist53HearingScreening49Hea1.thCoachingManagementSystem35Mammograms58IncentivePrograms57Physica1.Check-ups87%Ofcountnesmpondig%OfmuntriesrespondingAdvancedAssessmentWe1.1.nessInt